Sumati Semavoine-Jain, Sustainability Research Analyst  

BNP Paribas London Branch | Global Markets (Recorded 27 January 2024) 

In this podcast, we unpack what sustainability means for the housing sector. We see social value as a key overarching principle, defined in terms of the green and social goals it combines. In our view, an integrated approach generates co-benefits for people but also for governments, banks and insurers. We look at the macro drivers of social value, examining the different elements that should support the growth and implementation of such combined goals at a larger scale going forward.

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Jinyi Yue, Sustainability Research Analyst

BNP Paribas London Branch | Global Markets (Recorded 26 September 2024) 

• Global stock take at COP28 underlined for the first time that low-carbon H2 production should be accelerated alongside other clean technology types.

• With progress made on national strategies and regulatory frameworks, clean H2 is set to rise to new heights despite some near-term technical and supply chain challenges.

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Jinyi Yue, Sustainability Research Analyst

Jason Ying, Commodities Desk Strategist

BNP Paribas London Branch | Global Markets (Recorded 28 June 2024) 

This episode delves into the evolving landscape of EVs and sustainability. From current EV sales trends to charging infrastructure and battery supply chain, join us as we discuss key findings of our EV readiness scores, and examine regulatory dynamics, policy insights, market developments, and innovations influencing the future of global mobility.

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Trevor Allen, Head of Sustainability Research | BNP Paribas London Branch

Sumati Semavoine-Jain, Sustainability Research Analyst | BNP Paribas London Branch

Natural capital is quickly becoming an essential consideration for the creation of government policy, reporting practices, and investment strategy. With the Global Biodiversity Framework defining the ambition in 2022, we expect efforts this year to centre on how to track, enforce and finance these common goals. 3 main drivers to get there: policy, disclosures and innovation.

BNP Paribas London Branch | Global Markets (Recorded 22 May 2024) 

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Jeffrey Schultz, Chief CEEMEA Economist

Sumati Semavoine-Jain, Sustainability Research Analyst  

Niccolo Carrara, Emerging Markets Economist

BNP Paribas London Branch | Global Markets (Recorded 04 January 2024) 

• There are significant pockets of vulnerability in countries’ ability to respond to physical risks related to climate change, according to our new BNP Paribas climate adaptation readiness scores.

• Some of the weakest scores are in south Asia, as well as in parts of sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America.

• Agriculture’s exposure to water stress is a potential source of global inflation volatility.

• In the short term, a potentially strong El Niño episode might keep food prices elevated.

• In the medium term, without sufficient adaptation, the agricultural sector might suffer unexpected losses and cost pressures due to climate change.

• EM governments face the prospect of responding to more frequent food supply shocks and investing in climate adaptation against the backdrop of severely depleted fiscal capacity.

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This podcast was recorded  9 November 2023

• Artificial intelligence provides some threats to emerging markets, we think.
• To avoid sharp distortion across countries, regulation requires harmonisation at the global level, which could be hard to find amid US-China geopolitical tensions.
• An unequitable distribution of benefits from AI, potentially aggravating income inequality, is likely to be a major hurdle.
• Notwithstanding these threats, AI also offers scope for meaningful productivity gains in some sectors, particularly those that are able to adapt quickly.
• We argue it is time for some EM to broaden their focus beyond manufacturing-based export-led growth

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Andrew Schneider, Senior Economist, US 

Andrew Husby, Senior Economist, US  

BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 10 October 2023)  

• The US consumer has powered ahead this year, but we see several factors that could slow spending in the near term.
• Most lower and middle-income households have depleted their excess savings, while interest payments as a share of income look set to approach levels last seen ahead of the global financial crisis. 
• We expect consumer spending growth to slow sharply this quarter, to just 0.5% q/q saar from a 3.6% Q3 pace.

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Sumati Semavoine-Jain, Sustainability Research Analyst  

BNP Paribas London Branch | Global Markets (Recorded 18 August 2023) 

• Physical climate risk is rising in intensity and frequency globally. 
• (Re)insurance plays the essential role of shock absorber, protecting from a natural disaster’s second-round impacts on economic activity and the wider financial system. 
• However, given increasing and more chronic insured losses, the protection gap is rising, leaving parts of the economy and of the world highly vulnerable. 
• There is room for (re)insurers, high-risk industries, public sector and regulators to mitigate risk and seize opportunities, we argue. 

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Andrew Schneider, Senior Economist, US 

Yelena Shulyatyeva, Senior Economist, US

Andrew Husby, Senior Economist, US 

BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 03 August 2023) 

• We expect household excess savings – which has bolstered consumer spending over the last eighteen months – be depleted by the end of this year.
• Watch for more price elastic consumer spending as households become increasingly dependent on paycheck income.

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Debora Luncaorte, Economist, Mexico 

BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 10 July 2023) 

• We discuss Mexico’s disinflation process, its risks and implications for the monetary policy path in  the country.

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Yelena Shulyatyeva, Senior Economist, US

Andrew Schneider, Senior Economist, US

BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 27 June 2023) 

• Analysts looking for an easing of lending conditions in the 2nd quarter may be in for a surprise based on the latest banking conditions survey from the 11th Fed district.
• Ongoing financial sector stress poses a brisk head wind to economic activity and may very well factor into monetary policymakers’ assessment of the appropriate fed funds terminal rate. 

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BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 13 June 2023) 

• Water has been rising on the agenda of sustainable investors this year.
• We address some of the main questions/challenges in this episode.
• Access to clean freshwater has generally been taken for granted, leading to wastage and pollution. However, with increasing supply chain transparency and greater focus on water quality, practices are coming under closer scrutiny.
• A number of opportunities exist in the space, with room for innovation throughout the water cycle, adoption of circular business models, and public-private partnerships. 

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BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 07 June 2023) 

• Our property update suggests there are still downside risks to house prices globally, especially in a scenario of tighter-than-expected financial conditions.
• Residential housing prices remain elevated in level terms, hurting affordability and investor sentiment.
• Our indicator suggests housing unaffordability is particularly acute in Southeast Asia, with a potential knock-on political and socio-economic effect.
• Economies with high levels of household debt and a large share of it issued at floating rates, such as in South Korea, are also more vulnerable to higher mortgage burdens, and at greater risk of a wave of defaults.
• With rate cuts an obvious prerequisite for lower mortgage rates, demand for borrowing is likely to weaken further in developed markets, where central banks have not yet completed their tightening cycles.

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Nic Borain, Politics Analyst, South Africa 

BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 07 June 2023) 

South Africa is accused by US ambassador of helping to arm Russia, as several negative risk (loadshedding) spike  

 
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A weak dollar trend coupled with attractive carry has made LatAm markets attractive again. We expect the trend to continue but with some bumps down the road. 

BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 24 May 2023) 

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Megan Dale, Sustainability Research Analyst  

Sumati Semavoine-Jain, Sustainability Research Analyst  

BNP Paribas London Branch | Global Markets (Recorded 18 May 2023) 

In this episode, we look into the latest developments in Sustainable Finance, reviewing: the progress seen at Earth Day, 2023 sustainable bond issuance and conclusions from the recent pilot testing of the TNFD.  

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Carl Riccadonna, Chief Economist, US 

Yelena Shulyatyeva, Senior Economist, US

Andrew Schneider, Senior Economist, US  

Andrew Husby CFA, Senior Economist, US  

BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 10 May 2023) 

• The latest data indicated banks tightened standards to an even greater degree than an already-elevated intensity at the end of last year and across all major categories. The breadth of tightening was only surpassed during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the Covid pandemic. 
• The BNP Paribas US Financial Conditions Index, a quantitative tool to signal the relative restriction of financing conditions facing investors and the real economy in the US, currently augurs sharply slowing growth in economic activity in the second half of the year, to a level that is broadly consistent with our forecast for recession in H2 2023. 
• Inflation continues to run hot, but the increasingly well-defined peak in core services
  (and core services ex-shelter) should be welcome news to policymakers looking for further justification to pause rate increases and assess incoming information.
  

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Jeffrey Schultz, Chief Middle East and Africa Economist | BNP Paribas South Africa Branch

Niccolo Carrara, Economist, Emerging Markets | BNP Paribas London Branch

This podcast was recorded 2 May 2023

• EM food prices look set to remain well above levels consistent with inflation targets even as base effects suppress year-on-year rates of price growth. 
• We expect inelastic food demand, supported by post-pandemic recoveries, to combine with supply risks, including export restrictions from large producers and constraints on energy-dependent agricultural inputs. 
• As food prices matter a great deal for EM inflation, central banks face a tough time taming inflation expectations. 
• Central banks’ task will be even harder if the risk of social turmoil resulting from elevated food prices tempts governments to step up fiscal subsidies. 
• Our food vulnerability indicator highlights particular potential for pressure in pockets of CEEMEA and EM Asia. 
• Fiscal responses to high food prices would also risk driving up risk premia as markets reassess EM fiscal sustainability amid higher debt-servicing costs.

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Marcelo Carvalho,  Global Head of Economics

Dani Stoilova, Economist, Europe

Mariana Monteiro, Economist, Europe

Megan Dale, Sustainability Research Analyst

BNP Paribas London Branch  | Global Markets (Recorded 25 April 2023) 

• The proposed Green Deal Industrial Plan would be net positive for the EU outlook, in our view, supporting private investment and new green and clean-tech jobs.
• Coming on top of the NextGenerationEU programme and other existing funds, the EU has the means to compete with the US in the green transition.
• A subsidy race or ‘green trade war’ looks unlikely, due in part to the prospect of a limited US–EU trade deal.
• However, we think the EU could do more to improve the efficiency of its funding, to address perceptions that it is on the back foot relative to the US, and to maintain cohesion between its member states.
• To the extent that this is another force supporting a trend of reshoring, the overall effect is likely to be inflationary over the next few years.
• At a sector level, we think EU plans stand to benefit solar in particular, but firms will require greater detail around these subsidies before committing to significant investments.

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Jason Lui, Markets 360 APAC Coordinator and Head of APAC EQDStrategy  

Jacqueline Rong, Economist, Europe  

Christopher B Li, Credit Trading Desk Analyst  

BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 11 April 2023) 

• China’s economy and banking system are largely insulated from recent banking stress in DM countries, in our view.  
• Chinese policymakers’ campaigns against financial risks in the past five years and the PBoC’s cautious monetary policy stance have improved the health of the country’s banking sector.  
• The spillover of global credit stress to China’s banking system currently looks limited, thanks to abundant local liquidity and the market-friendly regulatory actions, though the property sector remains the weak link in accessing refinancing.  
  

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Spyros Andreopoulos, Senior Economist, Europe 

Dani Stoilova, Economist, Europe 

BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 03 April 2023) 

• The ECB might find the eurozone’s resilient labour market a tough nut to crack.
• After all, we see three factors behind the tight labour market: strong and resilient aggregate demand, labour shortages due to demographics and mismatch.
• As a result, the ECB may have to suppress demand sufficiently to deal with the cyclical reasons for labour market tightness as well as the structural ones.
• The bottom line is that the labour market is likely to be a key factor sustaining the ECB’s tightening cycle for a while longer.
  

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Pamela Díaz Loubet, Economist, Mexico

BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 27 March, 2022) 

We discuss Mexico’s monetary policy as the cycle nears its end. In particular, how
the reaction function has changed after the financial turmoil and the extent to which the Fed might have influence over Banxico’s decisions. 

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Trevor Allen, Head of Sustainability Research  

Paola Lamedica, Head of Credit ESG and Derivatives Strategy  

• Paola addresses climate transition and examines to which extent corporates and sectors are progressing towards their net zero pledges. 
• Intentions are good, excellent even but it’s reality that lets us down. Some sectors are worse than other, especially within high-emitters. 
• We analyses whether investors are currently positioned to take into account this dievergence between targets and progress. 
• We also highlights which corporates in O&G, Chemicals and Mining stand out as making good progress towards their targets and which are completely off track.
  

BNP Paribas London Branch | Global Markets (Recorded 07 March 2023) 

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Sumati Semavoine-Jain, Sustainability Research Analyst  

With the IRA, the US looks to boost domestic growth, tackle supply chain vulnerabilities and offer more policy certainty, mostly in the form of tax credits. The US approach is in stark contrast to that of the EU, adopting more of a 'carrots without sticks' strategy, in our view. In turn, it might push the EU to provide more ‘carrots’. We expect the IRA to offer a competitive advantage to companies with business activities that focus on energy transition, and those with a local footprint.

BNP Paribas London Branch | Global Markets (Recorded 06 March 2023)    

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Paola Lamedica, Head of Credit ESG and Derivatives Strategy

Sumati Semavoine-Jain, Sustainability Research Analyst 

• Trevor, Paola and Sumati respond to Isabel Schnabel’s recent speech on greening the ECB bond portfolio. 
• The ECB's tilt towards Green and sustainable bonds will remain strong. 
• Within the most polluting sectors, they expect the highest emitters to come under increased scrutiny by the ECB, as they wish to incentivise corporates to aim for the best-in-class in their sector. 
• In the public sector space, they think the ECB to buy a larger share of sustainable bonds issued by supranationals and tilt sovereign and agency purchases towards Green bonds. 

BNP Paribas London Branch | Global Markets (Recorded 26 January 2023)    

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Sumati Semavoine-Jain,Sustainability Research Analyst 

While 2022 was about uniting and goal-setting in biodiversity, upcoming years will be about follow-through and execution. We present our views on how COP15, the biennial UN Biodiversity Conference, will translate into policy and market-driven changes in the near future, and steps required for significant progress. 

BNP Paribas London Branch | Global Markets (Recorded 17 January 2023)    

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Sumati Semavoine-Jain, Sustainability Research Analyst 

In 2023, we expect global green bond supply to recover and potentially exceed 2021 volumes as transition remains a priority, and as investors return to bond markets. The 2023 increase will mostly come from Europe and Asia we think. ESG investing is becoming more thematic. For green bonds, this means investors will look for more diversity in the use of proceeds, and apply more scrutiny on the issuer’s transition strategy. 

BNP Paribas London Branch | Global Markets (Recorded 11 January 2023)    

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Trevor Allen, Head of Sustainability Research  

Sumati Semavoine-Jain, Sustainability Research Analyst 

As we concluded in Biodiversity: The price and value of natural capital, progress in measuring and correcting externalities is under way. The COP15 dedicated summit on biodiversity is finally taking place this month and will set the bar for the coming decade.

We present a biodiversity basket in the fixed income space that gathers our high conviction issuers, committed to reversing biodiversity loss. In our view, credit portfolios would welcome such exposure, which would contribute to diversifying away from financials and utilities. We expect investor demand for biodiversity-related corporates to increase as the theme gains political traction.

BNP Paribas London Branch | Global Markets (Recorded 7 December 2022)    

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Megan Dale, Sustainability Research Analyst 

Trevor and Megan discuss the key topics at COP27, and how they see this shaping sustainable finance markets. They analyse what was in line with expectations, what was not, and what to expect going forward. 

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Megan Dale, Sustainability Research Analyst 

Trevor and Megan discuss the key topics at COP27, which will take place over the next fortnight. In particular, they highlight: which emitters will make more ambitious climate targets (or not), why the adaptation will be a focal point, and which different initiatives may help to fund these goals. 

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Carl Riccadonna, Chief Economist, US | BNP Paribas Securities Corp

Andrew Schneider,  Economist, US   | BNP Paribas Securities Corp

Thomas Rosenkoetter,  Head of Government Affairs |  BNP Paribas Securities Corp

In this podcast, Chief US Economist Carl Riccadonna,  Head of US Government Affairs Tom Rosenkoetter and Senior US Economist Andy Schneider discuss what’s at stake based on the likely results of the US midterm elections.
 

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Trevor Allen, Head of Sustainability Research  

Sumati Semavoine-Jain, Sustainability Research Analyst

BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 17 October 2022)   

• Trevor and Sumati are back to discuss biodiversity, and more specifically, how it can be addressed within equity portfolios. 
• Biodiversity remains a minor determinant of corporate ESG scores, and there is no readily available single metric to monitor a company’s effect on nature. Identifying investment opportunities, therefore, requires a tailored approach. 
• Our methodology looks at the flow of natural resources in supply chains (how corporates source, manage, monitor and recycle them) and aims to identify both: ‘enablers’, providers of solutions for change and ‘leaders’, early adopters of change. 

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Trevor Allen, Head of Sustainability Research  

Sumati Semavoine-Jain, Sustainability Research Analyst

BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 14 September 2022)   

Underpricing of biodiversity has caused unsustainable depletion of natural resources, with limited costs to harmful industries. But progress to measure and correct externalities is under way. Investors should start mapping their portfolios’ dependencies and impacts on nature, just as they monitor greenhouse gas emissions. We see a particularly significant financing gap in emerging markets, as they tend to face higher physical and transition risks than developed markets and to be richer in biodiversity. 

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Trevor Allen, Head of Sustainability Research 

Spyros Andreopoulos, Senior Economist, Europe 

BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 5 September 2022)  

What does the net zero transition mean for inflation and how could renewable energy help to cool down prices. 

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Luiz Eduardo Peixoto, Economist, Emerging Markets

Mohamed Abdelmeguid, Economist, MENA

BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 24 June 2022) 

Egypt is at a critical juncture as talks with the IMF progress amid market access constraints and a challenging external environment. We explore the prospects of an IMF deal, along with financing options and the central bank’s reaction function.  

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Gustavo Arruda, Head of Emerging Markets Research, Global Markets Latam

Laiz Carvalho, Economist, Brazil

BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 02 June 2022) 

Inflation has been a Global issue. Latin America has historical experience on inflation. In this episode we will talk about the Brazil experience. The main policy actions to contain inflation pressures, and what should we look going forward. 

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Sam Lynton-Brown, CFA,  Head of Global Developed Markets Strategy

Alex Jekov, G10 FX Strategist

BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 7 June  2022) 

• The USD’s failure to weaken following Fed lift-off reflects the high level of uncertainty around inflation and the fed funds path, causing high volatility in rate expectations, we argue. 
• The spillover from higher rates vol to FX vol has made FX carry trades less attractive, in turn preventing high beta currencies from strengthening. 
• We think the Fed cycle is now fairly priced. Rates vol and, in turn, FX vol may be peaking, which suggests to us that the next leg in the USD is likely to be down as investors initiate carry trades.    

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Gustavo Arruda, Head of Emerging Markets Research, Global Markets Latam

Felipe Klein, Economist, Chile and Colombia

BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 27 May 2022) 

Inflation has been a Global issue. Latin America has long experience on
inflation. In this episode we will talk about the Colombia experience. The main
policy actions to contain inflation pressures and what should we look going forward. 

For more information, please refer to https://markets360.bnpparibas.com  

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Gustavo Arruda, Head of Emerging Markets Research, Global Markets Latam

Florencia Vazquez, Economist, Argentina

BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 26 May 2022) 

Inflation has been a Global issue. Latin America has long experience on inflation. In this episode we will talk about the Argentina experience. We discuss the main policy actions to contain inflation pressures and  what should we look going forward.  

For more information, please refer to https://markets360.bnpparibas.com  

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Gustavo Arruda, Head of Emerging Markets Research, Global Markets Latam

Pamela Díaz Loubet, Economist, Mexico

BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 25 May 2022) 

Inflation has been a Global issue. Latin America has long experience on
inflation. In this episode we will talk about the Mexico experience. The main
policy actions to contain inflation pressures and what should we look going forward. 

For more information, please refer to https://markets360.bnpparibas.com  

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Sam Lynton-Brown, CFA, Head of Global Developed Markets Strategy

Ankit Gheedia, CFA, Head of Equity & Derivatives Strategy, Europe

BNP Paribas London Branch | Global Markets (Recorded 24 May 2022) 

Challenging the stock market adage, Sell in May, go away and come back on St Leger’s day, European equities have enjoyed a seasonal bounce from May into June in recent years, due, in our view, to investors closing their short positions on European equities before the less liquid summer months.

The SX5E front month open interest is approaching Covid highs and we believe this indicates congested short positioning in European equities. Near term, we expect shorts to unwind ahead of the summer holidays and see potential for short-term upside in SX5E.

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Ju Wang, Head of Greater China FX & Rates Strategy  

BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 13 May 2022) 

While the recent RMB weakness bears some resemblance to the H2 2015 devaluation cycle, we believe the Chinese equities should fare better than previous RMB depreciation cycles. We expect the RMB to act as a shock-absorber rather than constrain macro policy, with a weaker RMB eventually helping to loosen monetary conditions.  

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Marcelo Carvalho, Head of Global Emerging Markets Research  

Luiz Eduardo Peixoto, Economist, Emerging Markets

BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 05 May  2022) 

The likelihood of significant disruption, or even a halt in, oil and gas
flows from Russia to Europe has risen substantially, in our view, as the
Russia–Ukraine war drags on.

We expect the gas supply to EU nations rejecting Russia’s new ‘roubles-for-gas’
scheme to be affected, with Gazprom’s flows to these countries likely to be
halted in the next few days.

​​​​​​​The reduced flow of Russian gas to the EU over winter suggests the immediate
impacts may not be too damaging, though reserves may fall further.

The supply of Russian oil is less likely to be disrupted in the same way, with
a EU-wide plan in the offing to cut these imports.  

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Paul Hollingsworth, Chief European Economist 

Spyros Andreopoulos, Senior Economist, Europe

BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 04 May 2022) 

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is inflicting a terrible cost in terms of lives lost and human suffering. While the war is still ongoing, in this podcast we consider how its impact might reshape the global economy in the years to come.     

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Calvin Tse,  Head of Americas Developed Markets Strategy

Alex Jekov, G10 FX Strategist

BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 27 April 2022) 

With hiking cycles under way in the G10, we look into which rates matters most for FX  

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Olivia Frieser, Global Head of Markets 360

Paul Hollingsworth, Chief European Economist 

Alex Jekov, G10 FX Strategist

BNP Paribas London Branch | Global Markets (Recorded 05 April 2022)  

• With less than a week to go until the first round of the election on Sunday 10 April, we think the chances of a surprise outcome have risen.  
• Opinion polls continue to point to the first round resulting in a repeat of the 2017 face-off between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen.  
• But the gap between Macron and Le Pen in opinion polls has narrowed, voter turnout is expected to be low and there is a high number of undecided voters.  
• A Macron re-election remains the most likely outcome, in our view, but our degree of conviction in this outcome has fallen in recent weeks.  
• We look at market implications and risk premium  

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Hiroshi Shiraishi, Senior Economist, Japan 

BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 31 March 2022)   

Under the risk scenario of persistent downward pressure on the JPY and upward pressure on interest rates, we would expect the Bank of Japan to widen its yield curve control (YCC) on the 10y JGB yield to +/-0.5%. However, we do not expect such a move unless USDJPY rises above 125 and threatens to challenge 130. 

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Sam Lynton-Brown, CFA,  Head of Global Developed Markets Strategy

Alex Jekov, G10 FX Strategist

BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 28 March  2022) 

In this podcast we explore foreign investor buying of US assets. We find that most debt inflows come from the Eurozone and Japan. For institutional investors, we expect a slowing in eurozone investor buying of USD fixed income. For foreign holdings of US equities, any rebalancing lower of US equity exposure could result in substantial USD selling. Our assessment of the outlook for cross-border flow dynamics is consistent with upside risks to EURUSD.   

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Ju Wang, Head of Greater China FX & Rates Strategy 

BNP Paribas Hong Kong Branch | Global Markets (Recorded 24 March 2022)   

Diverging monetary policy between China and US is the dominant theme for China’s FX and rates. We expect the RMB to be resilient in Q1, but weaken to 6.60 into year-end on carry compression, slower exports and rising outbound investments into HK. China rates remain a rare shelter in a world of high inflation.  

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BNP Paribas London Branch  | Global Markets (Recorded 24 March 2022)   

With the economic picture weakening, there is an increasing focus on fiscal policy and we discuss why this is the case in this podcast. In particular, we look at how governments have been providing support, whether the current shock changes the fiscal debate in Europe and the implications of all of this for central banks.
 

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Jason Lui, Head of East Asia Strategy

BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 24 March 2022)   

The China economy is facing headwinds from both domestic (Covid outbreaks) and external (Russia-Ukraine conflict) factors. We discuss how the Chinese policymakers may introduce new policy measures to maintaining their commitment of regaining
growth momentum in 2022.   

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BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 18 March 2022)   

Have concerns over Russian Sanctions been a material factor in driving nickel prices to record highs?   

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Sam Lynton-Brown, CFA, Head of Global Developed Markets Strategy

Ankit Gheedia, CFA, Head of Equity & Derivatives Strategy, Europe

BNP Paribas London Branch | Global Markets (Recorded 09 March 2022)   

Slower growth, higher inflation and risk of policy tightening will weigh on equities in the near term, in our view. We would not buy the dip in equities in the very near term in Europe, despite our medium-term positive fundamental view. 

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With: 

Luigi Speranza, Chief Global Economist

Paul Hollingsworth, Chief European Economist

BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 04 March  2022) 

With the pandemic still ongoing, the global economy now faces another shock in the form of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Much like Covid, this is a shock which affects both the demand and supply side of the economies. It is also similar in that this has a downward impact on economic growth, and an upward impact on inflation. The policy response, however, is more unclear. 

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Marcelo Carvalho, Head of Global Emerging Markets Research  

Luiz Eduardo Peixoto, Economist, Emerging Markets

Burak Baskurt, CFA, Chief Emerging Markets Strategist

BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 02 March  2022) 

Significant sanctions were introduced on Russia in recent days, and more could come– suggesting the country may be cut off completely from much of the world economy and financial system.

Impacts to the Russian economy will be substantial, and include double digit inflation and a sharp recession. The country has also reacted with counter-sanctions.  

One of the main channels of transmission to the rest of the world will be through added inflationary pressures coming our way.  

In EM, Central and Eastern Europe are the most exposed not only geographically but through trade, while Asia may be more isolated from impacts.

For more information, please refer to https://markets360.bnpparibas.com  

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Paul Hollingsworth, Chief European Economist  

Luca Pennarola, Economist, Europe

BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 17 February  2022) 

We think supply chain bottlenecks should ease over the course of 2022.

However, the road to a new normal could be a bumpy one.

In this podcast, we explain how we are tracking developments and their impact on growth and inflation. 

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Sam Lynton-Brown, CFA,  Head of Global Developed Markets Strategy

Alex Jekov, G10 FX Strategist

BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 15 February  2022)   

We analysed USD performance during Fed rate hike cycles and reject the widely-held consensus that the USD peaks versus low beta FX prior to Fed lift-off, rather conclusions are nuanced.

We find that the USD performed better when the starting level of rate spreads was wide and in the USD’s favour, especially if US risky assets are stable despite higher yields.

We also find that the speed of tightening is not indicative of USD performance throughout the cycle.

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Paul Hollingsworth, Chief European Economist 

Pawel Struski, Inflation & Macro Quant Strategist

BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 2 February  2022)   

As inflation reaches new record highs in the eurozone, are we going to see stronger wage growth coming through too? We think the answer is yes, but it will take time.

In this podcast, we discuss what lies ahead for wage growth in the eurozone and how to interpret the upcoming data.

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Olivia Frieser, Global Head of Markets 360

David Martin, Head of Commodities Desk Strategy

BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 3 February 2022)     

OPEC+ concluded its monthly meeting on Wednesday. 

On paper, the rapid endorsement of a further 400 kbd in March OPEC output is exactly what the market requires, in our opinion, given the continued recovery in demand.  

However, in reality OPEC+ continues to under-deliver against its agreement, with initial January estimates point to as little as an additional 120-150 kbd of production in January versus December.

Unless OPEC+ can accelerate production growth, then in our opinion, the cumulative under-delivery versus plan – which the IEA assessed at near 800 kbd in December is set to accelerate in the coming months.
 

Thus, even as OPEC’s own assessment of the market points to continued surpluses in the coming quarters, it appears predicated on a continuous increase in OPEC+ supply that seems unachievable. 

The reality is that the market participants may need to prepare themselves for continued draws especially in H2 2022 and 2023.  

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Olivia Frieser, Global Head of Markets 360

David Martin, Head of Commodities Desk Strategy

David Wilson, Metals Strategist

BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 3 February 2022)     

In the hypothetical event of a full-blown conflict between Russia and Ukraine, we would expect the main impact on commodity markets to be higher European gas prices. 

There could be further direct effects on global gas, oil and metals markets, proportionate to the impact of a loss of Russian production.

In a worst-case scenario, we estimate European gas prices would be pushed to fresh highs of EUR200/MWH and remain above EUR160/MWH for much of 2022. 

Oil markets would likely see an increase of USD5-10/bbl in a conflict scenario, depending on the scale and duration of any sanctions applied to Russian exports. 

Russian aluminium and nickel exports to North America and Europe are crucial to market balance and liquidity. Consequently, we expect nickel and aluminium would be the worst-affected base metal markets in the event of sanctions on Russia. 

In a worst-case scenario, we see a short-term price impact of 10% and 16% on aluminium and nickel prices, respectively, from current levels. 

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Marcelo Carvalho, Head of Global Emerging Markets Research

Luiz Eduardo Peixoto, Economist, Emerging Markets

BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 1 February 2022)    

After western Europe, central and eastern parts of the continent and Latin America are fast becoming the epicentres of Covid-19 infection, to be followed by Asia.
 

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Olivia Frieser, Global Head of Markets 360

Viktor Hjort, Global Head of Credit Strategy and Desk Analysts

BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 25 January 2022)    

The credit market has peaked, not because there will be any recession or defaults, but because of an imminent supply-demand shock. 

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Olivia Frieser, Global Head of Markets 360 

Trevor Allen, Sustainability Research Analyst

BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 20 January 2022)    

A look at how the newly proposed rules for including natural gas and nuclear power as transitional fuels could impact investments. 

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Paul Hollingsworth, Chief European Economist  

Amarjot Sidhu Economist, UK and Europe

Andrew Schneider Senior Economist, US

BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 14 January 2022)  

As governments withdraw support this year, are we heading towards a fiscal cliff in advanced economies? We think not, but the answer isn’t so clear cut from the numbers.

In this podcast, we discuss how to interpret the fiscal picture and the outlook for policy in 2022 across major developed markets.

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Sam Lynton-Brown, CFA, Head of Global Developed Markets Strategy

Ankit Gheedia, CFA, Head of Equity & Derivatives Strategy, Europe

BNP Paribas London Branch | Global Markets (Recorded 13 January 2022)   

We remain positive on European equities for the year ahead, with an H1 2022 target of 4700 for the SX5E index. 

We think a combination of earnings revisions, bearish positioning towards European equities and attractive valuations should pave the way for a strong equity rally over coming months. 

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legal notices, please refer to https://globalmarkets.bnpparibas.com/gm/home/Markets_360_Country_Specific_Notices.pdf 

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Olivia Frieser, Global Head of Markets 360 

Luigi Speranza, Chief Global Economist  

Shahid Ladha, Head of Strategy for G10 rates north America.

BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 12 January 2022)    

The Federal Reserve has shifted more hawkish in recent weeks – expressing concerns over high inflation and comfort over the level of employment. 

We expect the Fed to lift-off in March and deliver four 25bp rate hikes in each of the next two year. 

Quantitative tightening discussions are advancing. We look for the Fed to start shrinking its balance sheet in the second half of this year. 

Our 2y UST yield forecasts have been raised to 1.75% at the end of the year, reflecting a faster Fed normalization path. 

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Olivia Frieser, Global Head of Markets 360

Luigi Speranza, Chief Global Economist 

BNP Paribas London Branch | Global Markets  (Recorded 17 December 2021)   

We discuss the outcome of the December meetings and the next likely moves of the Fed, ECB, BoE and BoJ.

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Luigi Speranza, Chief Global Economist 

Paul Hollingsworth, Chief European Economist 

BNP Paribas London Branch | Global Markets  (Recorded 9 December 2021)  

Listen to our latest podcast on the final central bank meetings of 2021 and to what extent the emergence of the Omicron variant will affect decisions. 

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With: 

Olivia Frieser,Global Head of Markets 360  

Luigi Speranza, Chief Global Economist 

Sam Lynton-Brown, Head of Global Developed Markets Strategy

BNP Paribas London Branch | Global Markets  (Recorded 2 December 2021) 

The new omicron variant is likely to be a drag on activity in the near term but does not substantially alter our positive view on the medium-term outlook for the global economy. 

The variant’s impact on inflation is more ambiguous  – on balance, we think it’s more likely to push prices up than down. 

We see a good chance that the ECB will postpone its decision on asset purchases beyond December. 

Risk assets are unlikely to rise back to their highs in the very near term, in our view, and our worst-case scenario of a major health emergency would force a change in our developed-market strategy views covering equities, rates and FX. 

That said, given the available information, we think the repricing of some markets reflects too high a probability of the worst-case, tail risk scenario unfolding. We therefore favour selectively fading recent moves. 

https://bnpp.lk/0ze8Kb 

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With: 

Olivia Frieser, Global Head of Markets 360  

Luigi Speranza, Chief Global Economist 

Marcelo Carvalho, Head of Global Emerging Markets Research  

Sam Lynton-Brown, Head of Global Developed Markets Strategy

BNP Paribas London Branch | Global Markets

Our Global Outlook for the year ahead: 

Global growth: While many see a risk of stagflation, we are more bullish. We expect global growth to exceed both consensus expectations and its historical trend in 2022 and 2023.  

Inflation and monetary policy: We expect rising underlying price pressures to pave the way for monetary policy normalisation, but do not expect financial conditions in developed-market economies to become tight. EM central banks are facing greater pressure to raise rates in their fight against inflation and we think this will weigh on growth more heavily, although we see differentiation within emerging markets.

Developed-market strategy: We are positive on developed-market financial markets, expecting higher nominal and real yields, higher equity market prices and stronger high-beta currencies. We expect credit to underperform equities as the tapering of quantitative easing suggests outflows at a time when issuance remains robust, partly driven by capex. 

Risks to our outlook: We will monitor the risks to inflation expectations, China’s slowdown and property market, fiscal policy in emerging markets and political events. 

We wish you a successful and happy 2022. 

The Markets 360 team 

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