Macro Waves

How can Europe attain energy sovereignty?

Thu, 30 Apr 2026 10:15:00 +0000

Welcome to this new episode of MacroWaves, the podcast from BNP Paribas’s Economic Research department. In this episode, we’re joined by Pascal Devaux to discuss a crucial issue for Europe: its energy dependence. Reliance on imports highlights the European Union’s lack of energy sovereignty. This applies to both the primary energy mix and the infrastructure needed for its low-carbon transition.

The EU is making progress, however, albeit very slowly.

To what extent is the European Union dependent? What approaches could enable it to reverse the trend, or at least make progress? That is what we will explore in this episode.

https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/Home/en-US

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

AI, a new strategic driver for emerging economies

Fri, 03 Apr 2026 07:32:22 +0000

In this new episode of MacroWaves, we examine how artificial intelligence is reshaping growth in emerging economies. We hear from three economists at BNP Paribas Economic Research: Lucas Plé, Christine Peltier, and Hélène Drouot.
While Asia dominates semiconductor production, other countries, such as those in Latin America and Africa, are either exploiting their mineral resources or falling behind.
What challenges will they face? The answers lie in moving upmarket, securing energy supplies and avoiding increased geopolitical dependence in order to transform this opportunity into sustainable productivity gains.

https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/Home/en-US

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Public finances in advanced economies: significant yet surmountable constraints?

Mon, 23 Feb 2026 14:10:47 +0000

Between rising interest rates, an ageing population and massive rearmament needs, the budgetary equation for advanced economies is becoming increasingly complex. Why is debt continuing to grow in the United States and France, while it is falling in Spain and Italy? How does Germany intend to finance its infrastructure and defence without jeopardising its budgetary stability?
In this new episode of En Eco dans le texte, Stéphane Colliac, Marianne Mueller and Benjamin Puiseux explain the inner workings of public debt. They also explore reasons for optimism: from the impact of artificial intelligence on productivity to reforms in the employment rate of senior citizens.
These are certainly significant constraints, but are they really insurmountable? Delve into the issues that will shape global economies between now and the end of the decade.

https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/Home/en-US

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In 2026: Consumption to rebound in the Eurozone and to modaterate in the US?

Thu, 15 Jan 2026 12:00:00 +0000

Hello, everyone, and welcome to another episode of Macro Waves, the BNP Paribas Economic Research podcast. Today, we're looking at household consumption, which remains the main driver of growth in both the Eurozone and the United States. As we all know, household consumption suffered a major negative shock during the COVID-19 pandemic. Since then, growth has remained very moderate in the Eurozone, while it has accelerated sharply in the United States. After the pandemic, the inflationary crisis and contrasting economic policies of recent years, where do we stand on either side of the Atlantic?

https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/Home/en-US

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Emerging economies — Solid growth, limited room for manoeuvre

Thu, 04 Dec 2025 10:29:24 +0000

In today’s discussion, we delve into the public finances of emerging economies in 2025, based on an exclusive analysis of our most recent EcoPerspectives issue focused on these economies. With robust but slowing growth, rising public debt and limited fiscal flexibility, what challenges and opportunities lie ahead for these countries?

That's what we're going to explore with Hélène Drouot, an expert on Latin America and Lucas Plé, who specialises in sub-Saharan Africa

https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/Home/en-US

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

International trade: after the US tariff offensive, an ever more multipolar world

Tue, 04 Nov 2025 15:15:00 +0000

https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/Home/en-US

Since Donald Trump's return to the White House in 2025, the United States has massively increased its tariffs. As a result, trade flows to the US have been disrupted, but has this affected the dynamics of global trade? And above all, are we heading towards a major restructuring of global trade?

Fins out more here: EcoPerspectives — Advanced Economies | 3rd Quarter 2025– Economic Research – BNP Paribas

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Global Economy: Issues to watch in the second half of 2025

Fri, 25 Jul 2025 04:00:00 +0000

As we enter the second half of the year, and after a first half marked in particular on the economic front by the tariff war initiated by the United States, we suggest that we pause and look back for a moment. This will allow us to understand the dynamics that have shaped our economies over the last six months. It will also help us to identify to what extent and in what way they will impact the economic outlook for the second half of the year. What scenario should we expect?

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

What are the effects of US tariff policy on global trade and emerging economies?

Wed, 09 Jul 2025 13:37:08 +0000

To highlight the publication of the second quarter issue of EcoPerspectives Emerging Economies, three members of the Emerging Economies team speak in ‘MacroWaves’: Christine Peltier, Cynthia Kalasopatan Antoine and Lucas Plé. This is an opportunity to take stock of the specific challenges facing countries.

In this podcast, our economists review the consequences of US tariff increases on global growth, the dynamics of international trade reconfiguration, and the reorganisation of value chains. We will analyse the effects of these upheavals on emerging countries.

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In the turmoil of US tariffs: what effects on developed economies?

Fri, 23 May 2025 07:26:44 +0000

In this new Podcast, we take a look at the short- to medium-term economic outlook for the major advanced economies, analysing the impact of trade tensions, the room for manoeuvre available and the expected economic dynamics.

#growth #inflation #monetarypolicy #us #eurozone #uk

Reading advice :

Équipe Économies Avancées | EcoPerspectives — Économies Avancées | 2ème trimestre 2025 – Etudes Economiques – BNP Paribas

Sound credit :

Extact from the speech of Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, chief economist at the IMF, during the IMF World Economic Outlook' press briefing, April 2025.

# Press Briefing: World Economic Outlook, April 2025 - YouTube

Extract from Jérome Powell's speech at the May 7, 2025 FOMC press conference.

# FOMC Press Conference May 7, 2025

Extact from the speech by Christine Lagarde, Président of the ECB, at the announcement of the ECB's latest monetary policy decisions, April 17, 2025.

# President Lagarde presents the latest monetary policy decisions – 17 April 2025

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Audiobrief | Self-employment back to the future

Wed, 26 Jun 2024 07:08:45 +0000

In this Audiobrief, Stéphane Colliac discusses selfemployment in France. It has been growing again for almost 20 years, particularly in household services, but also in business services. In France, which has created nearly 420000 jobs a year over the last 5 years, self-employment has represented almost one job creation out of 5.

Economic Research Website

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Audiobrief | The European Union's trade balance: back in surplus

Tue, 28 May 2024 09:32:46 +0000

In this Audiobrief, Guillaume Derrien discusses recent evolution of the European Union's trade balance. The latter moved back to a surplus in 2023. Despite China’s ramping up to higher value-added sectors, the EU trade surplus in traditionally buoyant industries (pharmaceuticals, automotive) remains at historically-high levels.

Economic Research Website

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Audiobrief | French trade deficit: France is relatively deindustrialised but investing

Wed, 13 Mar 2024 11:10:37 +0000

In this audiobrief, Stéphane Colliac describes France’s trade deficit for 2023 main drivers. In addition to a deficit linked to imports of hydrocarbons and a structural deficit reflecting the country’s de-industrialisation, it is also driven by France’s investment in the needs arising from the ecological and digital transition and the electrification of the car industry.

Economic Research Website

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

#2 - Geopolitical uncertainty: economic consequences

Thu, 21 Dec 2023 08:35:02 +0000

In the second podcast on geopolitical uncertainty and its economic consequences, Daniel Morris and William De Vijlder look more closely at the impact of geopolitical uncertainty on firms, households and financial markets.

Economic Research Website

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

#1 - Geopolitical uncertainty: economic consequences

Tue, 19 Dec 2023 10:08:47 +0000

In two podcasts Daniel Morris, Chief Market Strategist of BNP Paribas Asset Management discusses with William De Vijlder, Group Chief Economist of BNP Paribas the impact of geopolitical uncertainty on the economy. In this first podcast, they look at economic and geopolitical uncertainty, why it matters and how it can be measured.

Clic here to consult the graphic

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

#2 - Looking beyond the peak

Thu, 19 Oct 2023 07:15:02 +0000

In the second and last episode of the series on central banks and their fight against inflation, Andrew Craig and William de Vijlder are looking beyond the peak and discuss what will come next. Among the questions are: how long will central banks hold rates at these levels? How long will they plateau at these current levels? what come after that?

Economic Research Website

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

#1 - Central banks and their fight against inflation. Job done?

Thu, 12 Oct 2023 09:36:47 +0000

In this series of two podcasts Andrew Craig, co-head of the Investments Insight Center at BNP Paribas Asset Management, interviewed William de Vijlder, group chief economist of the Economic Research of BNP Paribas regarding the central banks policies to fight inflation. Among the questions answered in the first episode are:Are we at the peak or can we expect further rates hikes? Is the inflation going to declines? at which pace?

Economic Research Website

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

#3 - National recovery plan Espana 2050: Towards a productivity recovery?

Wed, 31 May 2023 07:00:01 +0000

In this third and final episode of the series dedicated to labour productivity in Spain, signs of encouragement for a recovery in Spanish productivity are presented, in particular thanks to a national recovery plan (2021-2026) that is in line with the España 2050 strategy, which consists of raising R&D investment.

Economic Research Website

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

#2 - Why Is Productivity Growth So Low?

Wed, 24 May 2023 07:00:02 +0000

In this second episode of the series on labour productivity in Spain, Hélène Baudchon and Guillaume Derrien discuss the three main factors that explain Spain's low productivity.

Economic Research Website

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

#1 - Productivity Spain's Achilles'Heel

Wed, 17 May 2023 16:00:41 +0000

In this series of three podcasts "Focus on Labour Productivity in Spain" Hélène Baudchon, Deputy Chief Economist and Head of the OECD team, BNP Paribas Economics Department and Guillaume Derrien, Senior Economist in the same team, discuss productivity as an endemic weakness of the Spanish model. This first episode reviews the main trends in the evolution of productivity in Spain compared to its European neighbours over the last 25 years.

Economic Research Website

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

AudioBrief | The link between global growth and international trade

Wed, 01 Mar 2023 11:46:52 +0000

In this new AudioBrief, Guillaume Derrien, economist within the OECD team, discusses the close relationship between global growth and the evolution of international trade.

Economic Research's website, BNP Paribas

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

#2 – Stagflation: Is it really back?

Thu, 16 Jun 2022 15:17:48 +0000

Is stagflation back? In this series of podcasts, William De Vijlder, Group Chief Economist of BNP Paribas, discusses the issue of stagflation, a term that has been increasingly used in the media in recent months. Stagflation, a multi-year phenomenon combining rising unemployment and high inflation, brings us back to the dark days of the 1970s and 1980s, when inflation levels were unprecedented and mass unemployment began.

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

#1 – Stagflation: Reminiscences of the past

Fri, 10 Jun 2022 15:30:03 +0000

The convergence of several factors of tension – the health crisis, the war in Ukraine, the tensions in supply chains – is leading us to speak more and more of stagflation. The term is a contraction of "stag" for stagnation in economic activity and "flation" for inflation. William De Vijlder, Chief economist of BNP Paribas, offers a two-part podcasts series on this worrying phenomenon.

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

#3 – Killing two birds with one stone: fiscal policy to boost growth and meet climate goals

Tue, 08 Sep 2020 14:19:12 +0000

In this final episode, William De Vijlder analyses the responses of European governments to
the crisis generated by the pandemic. How to stimulate and maintain economic growth
whilst at the same time developing an environmental policy that meets the challenges of
climate change? The “Next Generation EU” plan recently launched by the European
Commission is discussed from this viewpoint.

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

#2 – Towards a lasting change in the way we produce and consume?

Tue, 08 Sep 2020 14:17:41 +0000

In the second episode, François Doux and William De Vijlder discuss the profound social
changes that the pandemic has brought about. The virus has put health at the centre of
people’s worlds, and stimulated new interest in environmental issues. William De Vijlder
explains why these changes in behaviour and mindset could prove to be long-lasting.

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

#1 – Covid-19, lockdown and the environment

Tue, 08 Sep 2020 14:15:50 +0000

In the first episode of this series of podcasts, William De Vijlder and François Doux will look
at the concept of externalities to consider how lockdowns, by limiting human and economic
activity considerably, have affected the environment. They also examine the notion of
“green swan” risks; climate-related risks that could threaten the economy.

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

#3 – Inflation, perceived inflation and expected inflation: very different things

Tue, 18 Aug 2020 15:28:16 +0000

In the final episode, William De Vijlder turns to the psychological factors in play when it comes to inflation. We will see that inflation, perceived inflation and expected inflation are three very different notions. William also looks at relative prices and absolute prices and discusses how the Covid-19 pandemic has affected prices and the nature of demand. Lastly, he will look at the possible impact of the pandemic on the strategy of central banks in terms of monetary policy over the coming years.

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

#2 – Covid-19 and the outlook for inflation in the real economy

Tue, 18 Aug 2020 15:26:06 +0000

In this second episode, William De Vijlder turns to the real economy and examines the factors that could produce inflation. He draws the distinction between headline inflation and core inflation. Could core inflation, which is affected by tensions in the labour market and the markets for goods and services but also by inflation expectations, see an acceleration under current circumstances? William De Vijlder also looks at the supply side shock and the disruption of global value chains as a result of the pandemic. We will see how changes to these value chains could produce inflation.

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

#1 – Covid-19 and the outlook for inflation: a monetary approach

Tue, 18 Aug 2020 15:15:01 +0000

In the first episode, William De Vijlder emphasizes that the risk of an increase in inflation is high on the list of frequently asked questions by clients. To tackle the negative effects of the pandemic on the economy, central banks have relaxed their monetary policies and increased the size of their balance sheets by making massive injections of liquidity into the system. For Monetarists (followers of the Chicago School, founded by Milton Friedman), this increase in money supply is the root cause of inflation. Will this theory be borne out in the current economic context?

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Following the surge in the debt/GDP ratio, what action will the governments prioritise?

Tue, 30 Jun 2020 10:40:03 +0000

In response to the pandemic, many governments took a vast range of measures to curb the impact of the pandemic on the economy. In this final episode, William De Vijlder shows how the state remains the “balance sheet of last resort” in the event of an economic crisis. He also reviews the current situation of public finances and what this implies in terms of dynamics of the debt/GDP ratio.

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Ever bigger central balance sheets raise question about where is the limit

Tue, 23 Jun 2020 10:30:04 +0000

Central banks have played a key role in supporting the economy during the pandemic-induced recession. To do so, they increased the size of their balance sheet. William De Vijlder explains the mechanisms governing this increase in their balance sheet. Is there any limit on how far it might go? He also explains the concept of direct monetary financing.

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Dilemma for businesses: reduce debt or invest?

Tue, 23 Jun 2020 09:37:19 +0000

The second episode focuses on non-financial companies. As well as having a considerable impact on their short-term (cash) and long-term assets (imperative of aligning their operational model with new requirements in terms of supply chain resilience), the Covid-19 crisis has obliged businesses to increase their indebtedness. This confronts them with a dilemma whether to strengthen their balance sheet by paying back debt or to maintain a high degree of leverage an invest.

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Covid-19, unemployment, human capital and households’ balance sheet

Thu, 28 May 2020 15:41:52 +0000

In the first episode, William De Vijlder takes a look at households’ balance sheets by considering how assets and liabilities are influenced by the pandemic. We will also see how the loss of human capital due to the deterioration of the labour market plays a key role in the post-pandemic economic environment.

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

#3 – Central banks: Addressing the policy dilemma

Wed, 11 Mar 2020 06:00:11 +0000

In the third podcast, William De Vijlder shows how a central bank’s persistently accommodating monetary policy to bring inflation in line with the target can have a negative impact over the long term, threatening both growth and financial stability. In case of a crisis, central banks no longer have much room to intervene, since they have used up their manoeuvring room in the pursuit of their inflation target.

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

#2 – Central banks: the trade-off between inflation and financial stability

Wed, 04 Mar 2020 06:00:05 +0000

How to strike the right balance between inflation and financial stability has been a source of debate for decades. In this second podcast, William De Vijlder shows how the central banks give priority to inflation targets over financial stability. He uses a few examples to illustrate how central banks will opt to hold a steady course even when confronted with the risk of instability, which is often caused by financial market turmoil.

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

#1 – Central banks: current objectives and the issues they raise

Wed, 26 Feb 2020 06:00:19 +0000

In this podcast, we look at central banks policy objectives, which sometimes differ. The ECB’s top priority is to meet its inflation target, whereas the Fed is targeting both inflation and full employment. These objectives raise several questions: how can we measure inflation and full employment? How do central banks set their targets? And what instruments can be used to attain them? We will also see how central banks must deal with a constantly changing economic environment.

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

#03 – The paradox of saving: individual rationality, macroeconomic headache

Wed, 20 Nov 2019 06:45:09 +0000

In this last episode, William De VIjlder will show us how negative rates can have an unfavourable impact on financial income and notably retirement savings capital. Other questions arise: are these negative rates causing an increase in households’ savings rate and is this increase to last? And if so, to what extent can the monetary policy be affected?

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

#02 – Negative interest rates, a blessing for shoppers, a headache for savers

Wed, 13 Nov 2019 06:45:17 +0000

How negative rates can impact households and their savings? In this second part, we will see with William De Vijlder that there is no easy answer to this question given the heterogeneity of households and assets.

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

#01 – Negative nominal interest rates: causes

Wed, 06 Nov 2019 11:29:02 +0000

In the first episode of this podcast, William De Vijlder analyses the causes of negative rates while explaining how they can brought about the “paradox of thrift”. What does this concept cover? And how could negative rates foster the emergence of such a paradox?

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

#03 – Central banks, inflation targeting and financial stability

Wed, 18 Sep 2019 05:45:15 +0000

What is the position of central banks/organizations such as BIS (Bank for International Settlements), ECB (European Central Bank), the Fed (Federal Reserve) and the Bank of Japan on the issue of financial stability? In this last episode, William De Vijlder will focus on the Bank of Japan which has been conducting a policy of low interest rates for 20 years. Learning about the impact that such long-term policy has had on the Japanese economic agents is particularly relevant in our current low-rate environment.

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

#02 – A brief history of financial instability

Wed, 11 Sep 2019 05:45:05 +0000

2008 crisis was a major financial crisis but it was far from unique. William De Vijlder gives an account of some of the most significant economic crises with a particular focus on the 20th century. He shows how central banks tried to adjust to economic circumstances and fight financial instability. It is to be noted that financial stability has been one of the main concerns of central banks since the 2000s. The 2008 financial crisis reinforced the ambition of stability with notably the set-up of international organisations such as the FSB (Financial Stability Board) in 2009.

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

#01 – Financial (in)stability: definition, drivers

Wed, 04 Sep 2019 10:25:20 +0000

In this episode, William De Vijlder gives a definition of what financial stability is: not only does it create a favourable environment for the smooth functioning of the economy but it also helps absorbing shocks brought about by unforeseen events which put interconnected economic agents (companies, households, the public sector) at risk. He also reviews the four factors which make countries vulnerable and reveals how shocks (whether endogenous or exogenous) may deeply impact the economy.

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

#04 – Climate change: public sector

Mon, 22 Jul 2019 05:30:12 +0000

This last episode focuses on the impact of climate risk on the public sector balance sheet. How will states address the challenge of climate change? How will they manage the climate debt? Will they be able to implement the appropriate investment policies in a context of pressure on tax revenues? William De Vijlder exposes in this podcast the tremendous challenge faced by the public sector and the answers it is starting to provide. Interview conducted with François Doux.

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

#03 – Climate change and the governance of non-financial companies

Mon, 15 Jul 2019 05:30:18 +0000

Climate change can impact business in many ways. We all know the effects of natural disasters, for example. But today, the views of users and consumers should be taken into account. So, climate change can not only affect infrastructure, production or sales but as well the very value of a company. Indeed, its valuation could drop because of climate risk exposure. That is why, William De Vijlder, in this third episode, recommends companies to include climate risk into their balance sheet management. Interview conducted with François Doux.

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

#02 – Climate change: household balance sheets

Mon, 08 Jul 2019 05:30:24 +0000

How does climate change impact the household balance sheet? Households’ assets and liabilities may be subject to climatic hazards. In many countries, this lesson was learned the hard way. That is why households should be aware of the environmental impact of the companies they choose to invest in or work for. In this second podcast’s episode, William De Vijlder emphasizes the particular importance of climate change in household finances. Interview conducted with François Doux.

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

#01 – Climate change puts balance sheets at risk

Mon, 01 Jul 2019 17:02:16 +0000

Climate change puts at risk the balance sheets of numerous actors, such as households, companies and the public sector. The first episode of this series of podcasts sets the general framework, William De Vijlder is going to remind us what a balance sheet is and how climate change can impact it. The second episode will focus on households and the third one on companies. In the fourth and last episode William De Vijlder will explain how climate change is impacting the balance sheet of the public sector. Interview conducted with François Doux.

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

#03 – Geopolitical risk and business strategy

Thu, 20 Jun 2019 05:35:18 +0000

What business strategy should be adopted against geopolitical risks? The third and last episode describes two approaches "coping with" or "avoiding", that is to say to accept the risk or to guard against it. But a third way could be intelligent risk governance. How to build a robust strategy? William De Vijlder evokes different scenarios. Interview conducted with François Doux.

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

#02 – Geopolitical risk: impact on business

Thu, 13 Jun 2019 05:35:16 +0000

A consequence of globalization is the increasing exposure of companies to geopolitical risk. How can this risk be monitored? How does it affect markets and the economy? In this second episode, William De Vijlder demonstrates the complexity of the issue by exploring the ramifications that exist between all actors. Interview conducted with François Doux.

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

#01 – Geopolitical risk: definition

Thu, 06 Jun 2019 13:33:34 +0000

The slowdown of the global economy, more and more visible since the end of 2018, has many causes. Among them concern about the pace of US monetary tightening but also about rising trade tensions, import tariff hikes and, and in Europe, Brexit-related uncertainty. Clearly, geopolitics have contributed to an increase in the level of uncertainty. In this series of podcasts William De Vijlder will first define this type of risk, then in a second episode, he will analyse the impact on business and, in the third episode, propose a governance to be adopted in the face of geopolitical risk. Interview conducted with François Doux.

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

#03 - Inflation targeting: which future?

Mon, 29 Apr 2019 05:45:15 +0000

In an environment of extremely low interest rates, central banks' room for manoeuvre to boost growth in the event of a recession is limited. So what monetary policy should be pursued today? William De Vijlder discusses the question of changing the objective of targeting inflation in monetary policies. Interview conducted with François Doux.

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

#02 - Inflation targeting: experience and assessment

Tue, 23 Apr 2019 05:45:08 +0000

This second episode analyses the role of inflation targeting in the big disinflation of the 90s, the implications for growth, volatility of growth and inflation, real interest rates and inflation expectations. It also discusses the different perspectives on inflation targeting before and after the Global Financial Crisis of 2008. Interview conducted with François Doux.

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

#01 - Inflation targeting: origins and rationale

Mon, 15 Apr 2019 14:13:37 +0000

In this first episode, William De Vijlder discusses why low and stable inflation is important and how this led, about 30 years ago, in New Zealand, to introduce a monetary policy based on inflation targeting. He also discusses how this approach has been adopted by an increasing number of central banks. Interview conducted with François Doux.

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

#03 - Where climate change and inclusive growth meet

Thu, 14 Mar 2019 06:55:22 +0000

Climate change and inclusive growth are closely linked. Low income households will tend to suffer more from the negative economic consequences of global warming. Policy measures to reduce carbon emissions may also have a relatively speaking bigger impact on low income households. These topics are discussed by William De Vijlder in the final podcast of this series. Interview conducted with François Doux.

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

#02 - Inclusive Growth: The challenge at the country level

Thu, 07 Mar 2019 06:55:20 +0000

Addressing inequalities is one of the core challenges for inclusive growth. This episode discusses why, within a given country, inclusive growth is key in tackling inequality and what can be done about it in terms of policy. Interview conducted with François Doux.

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

#01 - Inclusive Growth: Why is it an issue

Thu, 28 Feb 2019 16:37:08 +0000

In this new series, William De Vijlder promotes the idea that growth can only be sustainable if it is inclusive. Indeed, poverty reduction on a lasting basis requires inclusive growth that allows people to contribute to and benefit from economic growth. In this first episode, we find out that inclusive growth refers both to the pace and pattern of growth, which are significantly interlinked. Interview conducted with François Doux.

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

#03 - Market psychology during economic downturns

Mon, 11 Feb 2019 06:00:10 +0000

The psychology of a recession, Episode 3 - The stylised facts of a recession (considerable drop in equity prices, widening of the spread between corporate and government bonds) imply that during a slowdown, investors will focus their attention on the likelihood of entering a recession. The sensitivity to bad news increases, the investment horizon shortens and volatility rises, with a detrimental impact on growth.

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

#02 - Slowdowns, households, companies and banks

Mon, 04 Feb 2019 06:00:11 +0000

The psychology of a recession, Episode 2 - Slower growth will raise the concern of households that unemployment will increase. Greater caution means less spending. Companies will scale back investments because they represent a long horizon commitment which moreover is irreversible. Banks will also become more cautious in extending credit, being concerned that the balance sheet quality of customer will suffer from a period of negative growth.

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

#01 - Why recessions trigger fears

Wed, 30 Jan 2019 15:50:22 +0000

The psychology of a recession, Episode 1 - A significant growth slowdown triggers anxiety that worse is to come. Households and companies hate uncertainty, confidence drops and a negative spiral develops. Although central banks may adopt a more dovish tone, the minds will still be dominated by a feeling that growth is missing.

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

#03 - Globalization tomorrow: the inclusion challenge

Tue, 08 Jan 2019 14:27:10 +0000

Third and last episode of the series dedicated to Globalization. In past episodes its limits were mentionned, but what's new for the future of globalization? William De Vijlder discusses three levels of globalization sustainability: inclusion, environment, financial stability – major challenges for economic policy. Interview conducted with François Doux.

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

#02 - Globalization today: from multi to bilateralism

Tue, 08 Jan 2019 14:27:00 +0000

Second episode of the bseries of three dedicated to Globalization. William De Vijlder analyses the transition from multilateralism to bilateralism, in the USA-China relations in particular. What are the consequences of growing bilateralism and uncertainty for trade, capital flows? Interview conducted with François Doux.

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

#01 - Globalization: an historical perspective

Tue, 08 Jan 2019 14:26:47 +0000

First episode of three dedicated to Globalization. What made globalization possible? In this first episode, William De Vijlder, the chief economist of BNP Paribas, distinguishes four drivers of globalization and discusses its limits. Interview conducted with François Doux.

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

#03 - Green Finance: how to influence behaviors?

Thu, 22 Nov 2018 15:08:56 +0000

Last episode of the series of three podcasts devoted to green finance. Responsible finance gives sense to our investments. How to influence stakeholders (households, businesses, markets finances, public authorities) and adapt our behaviour? William De Vijlder reviews possible solutions and recommends a proactive approach in which everyone integrates the reality of climate change into their decisions, including with respect to financial investments. Interview conducted with François Doux.

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

#02 - Green Finance: 3 growth scenarios

Thu, 22 Nov 2018 15:08:47 +0000

Second episode of the series of three dedicated to Green finance. Green finance is a vehicle for financing the investments needed for sustainable economic development. Is climate change an opportunity or a risk for growth? In this episode, William De Vijlder, discusses three scenarios and talks about the ambitions of economic policy that begins to take into account growth objectives respectful of the environment. Interview conducted with François Doux.

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

#01 - Green Finance: origins and perspectives

Thu, 22 Nov 2018 15:08:38 +0000

First episode of three dedicated to Green Finance. Since the end of the 70's, we have been talking about the climatic consequences of economic development. How does finance respond to the needs of a more sustainable development? In this first episode, William De Vijlder, the chief economist of BNP Paribas, reviews the definition, origins and perspectives of green finance. Interview conducted with François Doux.

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

#03 - The new frontier

Tue, 30 Oct 2018 06:50:13 +0000

Last episode of three dedicated to the tenth anniversary of the 2008 crisis and the Great Recession. Considering that the US business cycle is well advanced, time has come to assess which recipes central bankers will use to address the next downturn? William De Vijlder expects a creative approach will be adopted.

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

#02 - Back to normal

Tue, 16 Oct 2018 07:19:33 +0000

Second episode of three dedicated to the tenth anniversary of the 2008 crisis. After the Great Recession of 2008 William De Vijlder discusses the end of quantitative easing and the move towards a monetary policy which is less benign for financial markets. The road to normalization seems to be long and winding…

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

#01 - The only game in town

Fri, 05 Oct 2018 15:23:42 +0000

First episode of three dedicated to the tenth anniversary of the 2008 crisis. What happened in 2008? And how has this global shock changed the role of central banks and impacted financial circles? William De Vijlder, BNP Paribas Group Chief Economist, reviews history and explores the solutions found at that time.

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.