Think Macro by H2O AM

War in Iran : US Blunder & Grumpy Dollar

Thu, 30 Apr 2026 07:00:00 +0000

In this new episode of ThinkMacro presented by Babak Abrar, Vincent Chailley (CIO of H2O AM Group and H2O Monaco S.A.M), discusses the macroeconomic fallout from the conflict in Iran and its implications for global growth and markets. Behind the immediate shock, the discussion dives into the growing vulnerabilities of the US economy - from constrained fiscal and monetary buffers to softening consumer confidence - and explores whether the dollar’s long-standing dominance as the world’s reserve currency might finally be challenged. A timely and in-depth analysis of shifting global dynamics and what they could mean for investors.

This podcast is distributed for informational purposes only and does not constitute advice, an offer or solicitation by or on behalf of H2O AM to buy or sell any securities, related financial instruments or other products, or to engage in any trading strategy in any jurisdiction. The analyses and opinions contained in this document represent the views of the author(s) referenced as of the date indicated and are subject to change without notice.
Before investing in any product, investors should fully understand the risks, including the market risk associated with the issuer, the financial benefits and the suitability of such products, and consult their own advisors. Investors should be aware that the value of an investment and the income derived from it may fall as well as rise, and that past performance is not a guide to future performance.

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Japan emerges from the shadows: over a decade of Abenomics and the end of deflation

Wed, 04 Mar 2026 16:52:21 +0000

In this episode of ThinkMacro, Vincent Chailley, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of H2O AM Group, explores the transformation of Japan’s economy after three decades of deflation and stagnation. He traces the country’s evolution from the 1980s bubble collapse through Abenomics reforms to today’s return of sustainable, organic growth. The episode examines how deep structural changes in labor markets, governance, and fiscal policy have reshaped Japan’s economic foundations, while analysing the implications for interest rates, currency dynamics, and financial markets. The key message: Japan has finally escaped deflation, but investors should expect a very different macro environment ahead.

Before investing in any product, investors should fully understand the risks, including the market risk associated with the issuer, the financial benefits and the suitability of such products, and consult their own advisors. Investors should be aware that the value of an investment and the income derived from it may fall as well as rise, and that past performance is not a guide to future performance.

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The U.S economy's artificial high

Thu, 22 Jan 2026 06:00:00 +0000

Fueled by stimulus and debt, the U.S. economy appears resilient — but the foundations may be far weaker than they seem. Vincent Chailley, H2O AM Group CIO breaks down the drivers of this artificial high and the risks behind it: how long can America sustain its growth on borrowed momentum?

Before investing in any product, investors should fully understand the risks, including the market risk associated with the issuer, the financial benefits and the suitability of such products, and consult their own advisors. Investors should be aware that the value of an investment and the income derived from it may fall as well as rise, and that past performance is not a guide to future performance.

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2026: towards a multi-engine world

Fri, 19 Dec 2025 09:02:29 +0000

Between the loss of effectiveness of economic policies in the United States, European resilience, China's transition and the rise of emerging markets, our new episode of Think Macro explores the macroeconomic dynamics that are reshaping the global balance. A two-way discussion with Vincent Chailley, CIO of H2O AM Group, and Thomas Delabre, portfolio manager and macro specialist, on a more diverse world, where growth no longer depends on a single engine.

This podcast is distributed for informational purposes only and does not constitute advice, an offer or solicitation by or on behalf of H2O AM to buy or sell any securities, related financial instruments or other products, or to engage in any trading strategy in any jurisdiction. The analyses and opinions contained in this document represent the views of the author(s) referenced as of the date indicated and are subject to change without notice.
Before investing in any product, investors should fully understand the risks, including the market risk associated with the issuer, the financial benefits and the suitability of such products, and consult their own advisors. Investors should be aware that the value of an investment and the income derived from it may fall as well as rise, and that past performance is not a guide to future performance.

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

When long-term yields challenge central banks

Thu, 20 Nov 2025 09:03:11 +0000

In this episode of Think Macro, Vincent Chailley, CIO of H2O AM Group, explores an unusual market dynamic: central banks are cutting policy rates, yet long-term yields keep rising. This reversal is no coincidence - it reflects investors demanding a higher term premium in response to renewed concerns over debt sustainability, persistent inflation, and weakening institutional credibility.
We analyse why this shift matters, how it constrains economic policy, and what it could mean for investors and developed economies in the years ahead.

This podcast is distributed for informational purposes only and does not constitute advice, an offer or solicitation by or on behalf of H2O AM to buy or sell any securities, related financial instruments or other products, or to engage in any trading strategy in any jurisdiction. The analyses and opinions contained in this document represent the views of the author(s) referenced as of the date indicated and are subject to change without notice.
Before investing in any product, investors should fully understand the risks, including the market risk associated with the issuer, the financial benefits and the suitability of such products, and consult their own advisors. Investors should be aware that the value of an investment and the income derived from it may fall as well as rise, and that past performance is not a guide to future performance.

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

The AI innovation cycle: invest now or die later

Thu, 16 Oct 2025 14:52:07 +0000

In this episode of Think Macro, Vincent Chailley, Group CIO of H2O AM, analyses the global AI investment boom and its macroeconomic implications. As trillions flow into data centres and big tech races to dominate the future, can these colossal investments truly extend US growth, or are they masking the next slowdown? The AI Innovation Cycle: Invest Now or Die Later explores whether today’s technological revolution is a sustainable driver of productivity or a costly illusion of momentum.

This podcast is distributed for informational purposes only and does not constitute advice, an offer or solicitation by or on behalf of H2O AM to buy or sell any securities, related financial instruments or other products, or to engage in any trading strategy in any jurisdiction. The analyses and opinions contained in this document represent the views of the author(s) referenced as of the date indicated and are subject to change without notice.
Before investing in any product, investors should fully understand the risks, including the market risk associated with the issuer, the financial benefits and the suitability of such products, and consult their own advisors. Investors should be aware that the value of an investment and the income derived from it may fall as well as rise, and that past performance is not a guide to future performance.

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Stability achieved, fragile growth: Europe at a Crossroads

Fri, 29 Aug 2025 13:14:06 +0000

Europe has gained resilience since the sovereign debt crisis: a stabilising common currency, low unemployment, and debt held largely by domestic institutions. Yet behind this reassuring façade, growth remains stagnant at barely above 1% per year. Declining competitiveness is gradually undermining the continent’s commercial independence.

In light of this, the challenge is clear: Europe must revive productivity and innovation to break free from inertia - otherwise, it risks increasing dependence on external global powers.

Before investing in any product, investors should fully understand the risks, including the market risk associated with the issuer, the financial benefits and the suitability of such products, and consult their own advisors. Investors should be aware that the value of an investment and the income derived from it may fall as well as rise, and that past performance is not a guide to future performance.

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The End of One Model, the Rise of Another? American Exceptionalism in question

Fri, 04 Jul 2025 16:18:16 +0000

After decades of US economic exceptionalism, driven by consumption, innovation, and financial dominance, cracks are appearing in the model. The return of inflation is constraining the Fed in its ability to sufficiently ease financial conditions in a downturn, and the US Treasury in its capacity to stimulate the economy without triggering a negative reaction from investors.

With fewer economic levers at its disposal, the US appears naturally headed for a slowdown, an outcome that may not necessarily be bad news for the rest of the world.

Meanwhile, China is asserting itself more strategically. Having already reduced its trade dependence on the U.S., it possesses the tools to transform its economy toward a model more focused on consumption rather than manufacturing.

Before investing in any product, investors should fully understand the risks, including the market risk associated with the issuer, the financial benefits and the suitability of such products, and consult their own advisors. Investors should be aware that the value of an investment and the income derived from it may fall as well as rise, and that past performance is not a guide to future performance.

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.