Outerblue

Geopolitical friction and the new market reality - Market Analysis and Investment Views by Outerblue Convictions

Tue, 28 Apr 2026 08:06:33 +0000

Market Analysis and Investment Views by Outerblue Convictions

Markets have remained surprisingly resilient despite a fast-moving news cycle, rising geopolitical tensions and growing uncertainty around the outlook for growth and inflation. In this episode of Outerblue Convictions, host Swaha Pattanaik speaks with Monica Defend, Head of the Amundi Investment Institute, following the IMF spring meetings in Washington to discuss the structural shifts now shaping markets and what they mean for investors.

They examine the implications of a more fragile global backdrop, including the impact of geopolitical risk on oil prices, inflation persistence and central bank policy. Monica shares why the ECB and the Fed may need to keep rates higher for longer, while the Bank of Japan remains an exception. They also explore what markets may be underestimating, from the risk of a new geopolitical regime, to the potential for a disorderly repricing of US assets.

The discussion continues with a look at fixed income, equities, gold and the US dollar, as well as the importance of selectivity, quality and diversification in portfolios. With markets still pricing in optimism despite stretched valuations and persistent uncertainty, Monica explains why investment views may need to extend beyond traditional assumptions and prepare for a more demanding investment environment.

Concise, timely and highly relevant, this episode offers valuable insight for investors and asset allocators looking to understand the key macroeconomic, geopolitical and market themes shaping the second half of the year. Tune in for expert perspectives on asset allocation, central bank policy and the role of diversification in a changing world.

Thank you for listening to the latest Market Analysis and Investment Views, read our latest articles on the Amundi Research Center: https://research-center.amundi.com/

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Iran conflict: A temporary shock or a more persistent shift? Global Investment Views by Outerblue Convictions

Tue, 24 Mar 2026 16:24:42 +0000

The war in Iran has shaken markets and is threatening the stability of the global economy. As energy prices surge and the news flow comes thick and fast, this month’s host, Silvia Di Silvio, speaks to Monica Defend, Head of the Amundi Investment Institute, to hear her thinking on the crisis and how it is changing Amundi's investment views.

They take a closer look at what the war means for inflation, both in the near and longer-term, and when a temporary supply shock might turn into a more permanent change to the economic regime. They also consider the potential reactions from central banks as policymakers try to manage this complex environment of higher inflation, due to energy prices, combined with weaker growth.

The edition continues with a focus on the US dollar, which has been faring relatively well in the current crisis. Do we expect this to be the end of the USD downward trajectory?

Finally, we wrap up with a review of how these developments are impacting our asset allocation and portfolio construction views and the importance of smarter, multi-layered diversification in building resilient portfolios.

Concise, insightful and timely, this episode is essential listening for investors and asset allocators seeking a clear, expert take on macro-economic signals and monetary policy moves. Tune in for practical perspectives, investment views and the themes that will shape portfolios in the short and medium-term.

To learn more, read our latest articles on the Amundi Research Center: https://research-center.amundi.com/

Topics covered: Energy crisis, conflict, Iran, inflation, monetary policy, investment views, asset allocation, risk, economy, geopolitics, central banks, Federal Reserve, markets, investors, interest rates, equities, United States, USD, diversification, gold, hedging,

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Fragmented forces shaping the markets - Global Investment Views by Outerblue Convictions

Mon, 02 Mar 2026 15:59:02 +0000

As tariffs figures once again hit the headlines, our new episode of Outerblue Convictions measures the feeling in the markets and looks at some of the main drivers over the past few weeks. Swaha Pattanaik speaks to Monica Defend, head of the Amundi Investment Institute, to gauge her reaction to the latest round of tariffs, and whether these impact our investment views.

This month's episode looks at the switch we've seen in global markets in this new era of controlled disorder, analyses some of the disruptions from AI that are already starting to play out, and explores some of the diversification opportunities that can be found in this fragmented environment. We also discuss whether we can expect the gold rally to continue, why India remains a key investment theme, and we finish by looking forward to the upcoming EU summit and why it might be relevant for markets.

Topics covered: Market forecasts, monetary policy, policy making, investment views, asset allocation, economy, central banks, gold, markets, investors, equities, bonds, fixed income, Europe, India, emerging markets, AI, diversification, tariffs,

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Tracking the trends in a time of rupture - Global Investment views by Outerblue Convictions

Tue, 03 Feb 2026 10:51:27 +0000

After a flurry of headlines and announcements from the annual World Economic Forum in Davos in January, one key message is likely to survive after most of the speeches have been long-forgotten; The world is facing a rupture in the international order.

Catching-up last week on her return from the meetings, Monica Defend, head of the Amundi Investment Institute, sat down with our host, Swaha Pattanaik, to share her observations from the ground and on how this rupture is likely to impact our economic research and investment views.

As policy, geopolitics and volatility drive the market cycle, we look at what this means for the monetary policy outlook in the US and the key data driving forecasts. We consider some of the short and medium-term trends we're seeing in the markets, particularly gold and the forces driving the record highs, what's been impacting the US dollar, and examine what has been happening in the Japanese market, both for foreign exchange and government bonds.

To learn more, read the article on the same topic: https://research-center.amundi.com/article/diversification-response-rupture

Topics covered: Market forecasts, monetary policy, policy making, investment views, asset allocation, economy, Davos, geopolitics, central bank, Federal Reserve, Japan, Gold, markets, investors, interest rates, bonds, fixed income, FX, foreign exchange, United States, diversification

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Monetary policy resolutions for a new year - Global Investment views by Outerblue Convictions

Fri, 19 Dec 2025 09:21:11 +0000

It's the time of year to look ahead, reflect back on what has happened, and make resolutions for the coming year. After explaining our market forecasts and investment views for 2026 in last month's podcast, in this episode we're focusing more closely on a key factor that drives market movements, monetary policy.

Sitting down with Monica Defend, Head of the Amundi Investment Institute, for the last time this year, our host, Swaha Pattanaik, asks all the essential questions to help investors understand the different expectations for monetary policy decisions in the months to come and which resolutions are realistic.

Starting with the largest, the Federal Reserve, we explore the baseline scenario, we analyse the competing pressures and how the Fed is responding. We then compare this to the outlook in the Eurozone and our expectations for the ECB in 2026 in terms of interest rate movements. Finally, we compare these potential developments to our portfolio positioning in fixed income and equities and discuss some of the fragilities investors need to keep in mind.

Topics covered: Market forecasts, monetary policy, policy making, investment views, asset allocation, economy, central bank, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, growth, GDP, markets, investors, inflation, interest rates, bonds, fixed income, equities, United States, Europe, emerging markets, diversification

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2026 Investment Outlook - Keep it turning - Global Investment views by Outerblue Convictions

Mon, 24 Nov 2025 17:03:34 +0000

In this month's podcast, we take a longer view than usual, as we look at our market convictions and investment views for the next 12 months. Join our host, Swaha Pattanaik, for her regular catch up with Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Investment Institute, for a whistle-stop tour around the world and across asset classes to discover the key talking points from Amundi's 2026 Investment Outlook.

After a year of dramatic market moves, geopolitical events and economic developments, what should investors expect for 2026? We look at the central questions that are shaping our investment views and decision making. In particular, how much impact will AI have on market growth next year and what companies and sectors will be the likely winners? What's the growth and monetary policy outlook for the major global economies? How will threats to central bank independence play out in the markets and will investors continue to diversify away from US assets? We explore the diversification theme and some of the interesting stories for investors to follow in emerging and private markets and the energy transition, among others.

Concise, insightful and timely, this episode is essential listening for investors and asset allocators seeking a clear, expert take on cross‑market signals. Tune in for practical perspectives, investment views and the themes that will shape portfolios in the year ahead.

Topics covered: Investment outlook, market forecasts, policy making, investment views, asset allocation, economy, growth, GDP, markets, investors, inflation, interest rates, monetary policy, equities, gold, United States, Europe, Japan, central bank, AI, diversification,

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Deciphering conflicting signals - Global Investment views by Outerblue Convictions

Fri, 07 Nov 2025 09:09:57 +0000

Returning from trips to major summits in Washington and Shanghai, Monica Defend, Head of the Amundi Investment Institute, sits down with our host, Swaha Pattanaik, to discuss the tone on the ground and how this compares to what we're seeing in the markets and our own economic forecasts for the months to come.

These international gatherings are a prime opportunity to hear, first-hand, the thinking of financial officials, policymakers and investors. This month's edition shares the key takeaways and our investment views in light of these observations.

They take a closer look at the risks to watch and the drivers behind the curious coexistence of record equity and gold rallies. They revisit the Europe transformation story that has been emerging, and assess whether it's still attracting interest from investors as a diversifier. They also take a tour to China and Japan and examine what the latest economic and political developments mean for their respective growth and monetary policies.

Concise, insightful and timely, this episode is essential listening for investors and asset allocators seeking a clear, expert take on cross‑market signals ahead of Amundi’s 2026 outlook. Tune in for practical perspectives, investment views and the themes that will shape portfolios in the months ahead.

Topics covered: IMF, policy making, investment views, asset allocation, economy, growth, outlook, GDP, markets, investors, inflation, interest rates, monetary policy, forecasts, equities, gold, United States, Europe, China, Japan, central bank, tech rally, diversification, strategic autonomy,

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Calm waves mask shifting undercurrents - Global Investment views by Outerblue Convictions

Wed, 10 Sep 2025 07:28:37 +0000

While Europe headed to the beach, journalists were kept busy with the newsflow out of the US this summer, as central bank independence, new tariff announcements and foreign affairs negotiations continued to make headlines.

Swaha Pattanaik and Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Investment Institute, return to their desks to catch-up you up on what all the developments mean for market outlook and how our investment views are evolving to keep pace.

This episode takes a closer look at the shifting undercurrents in the US market: tariffs, labour figures, policy and inflation uncertainty. We dig deeper into how the current political pressures are effecting markets, in particular the current challenges to the Federal Reserve's independence and the moves on the US Treasuries yield curve.

We also take a closer look at valuations in the US equities markets and see how the Indian and Chinese economies have been holding up against the new tariff announcements.

Topics covered: Investment views, markets, forecasts, US economy, US dollar, central banks, Federal reserve, interest rates, monetary policy, tariffs, yields, equities, fixed income, treasuries, GDP, India, China,

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Deal or no deal, expect twists and turns this summer - Global Investment views by Outerblue Convictions

Thu, 31 Jul 2025 13:47:00 +0000

With summer well underway in Europe, many may be on holiday, but this hasn't done anything to slow the newsflow. In particular, announcements from the US are keeping analysts busy. Swaha Pattanaik and Monica Defend, Head of the Amundi Investment Institute, get together to work out what the latest developments mean for the markets and share their investment views for growth, inflation and asset valuations.

With a new US budget agreement and continued threat of new tariffs we debate their impact, both realised and potential, on growth and inflation in the US and elsewhere. The independence of central bank decision-making has also been a big topic of the month as the Fed has been facing continued political pressure over its interest rate decisions, which is rattling US assets. What might be the consequences for the US dollar and US treasuries?

Finally, we look at whether this earnings season is offering any early warning signs of things to come and we drill down into our investment views and outlook for the main asset classes and markets.

Topics covered: investment views, markets, macroeconomics, central banks, Fed, growth, inflation, interest rates, tariffs, US budget, US dollar, US treasuries, fiscal policy, monetary policy, economic forecasts, emerging markets, Asia, equities, fixed income, credit, earnings,

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Mid-year Outlook 2025 - Riding out the policy noise - Global Investment Views by Outerblue Convictions

Tue, 01 Jul 2025 15:45:22 +0000

The first six months of 2025 brought many unexpected events and shocks that rocked financial markets and complicated the task of economic forecasters. As we enter the second half of the year, what has changed and what might this mean for the economic outlook for the rest of 2025?

Swaha Pattanaik sits down with Monica Defend, Head of the Amundi Investment Institute, to get her view on the growth and monetary policy outlook for the remainder of 2025.

They discuss the impact of tariffs and geopolitical shifts on growth prospects in the US, China and beyond. They consider which areas might benefit from a weaker US dollar and where yield curves might be heading next.

Finally, they examine the areas of resilience in the markets that could still offer opportunities to investors.

Topics covered: Investment outlook, macroeconomics, forecasts, monetary policy, growth, interest rates, yield curves, bonds, equities, emerging markets, US dollar, China, US, Europe, Fed, debt, valuations, stock market, tariffs, geopolitics, volatility, AI, defense,

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Tracking the U-turns amid rising yields - Global Investment Views by Outerblue Convictions

Tue, 10 Jun 2025 15:01:28 +0000

Join our host, Swaha Pattanaik, as she sits down for her regular catch-up with Monica Defend, Head of the Amundi Investment Institute, to give our perspective on the markets, analyse the trends and share our investment views for the weeks ahead.

In this month's review, we discuss what's been driving the rise in yields on longer maturity US and Japanese bonds in recent weeks. Do we expect this trend to continue and what does this mean for fixed income markets more broadly? We also consider the outlook for inflation and monetary policy in the major economies around the globe, look more closely at the US market in particular, and examine how the uncertainty around tariffs has been impacting the equity markets.

Finally, we drill down into the areas and asset classes that could be most appealing to investors, across developed and emerging markets.

Topics covered: Investment views, investment convictions, financial markets, macroeconomics, monetary policy, fiscal policy, inflation, growth, interest rates, central banks, fixed income, yields, US, Japan, equities, bonds, emerging markets, tariffs

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Trade wars continue to complicate policy decisions - Global Investment Views by Outerblue Convictions

Mon, 19 May 2025 10:39:49 +0000

The spring meetings in Washington are a useful platform to gauge opinion of policymakers, economists, bankers and investors from around the world. In this latest edition of our monthly investment views podcast, Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Investment Institute, catches up with Swaha Pattanaik on her return from the US to share Amundi’s latest investment views and talk about the mood in Washington, and what this might mean for the markets.

They discuss the impacts of US tariffs and the retaliatory measures on the global economic outlook, looking particularly at the consequences for growth and inflation expectations. They also consider what’s next for central bank moves and Amundi's forecasts for interest rates. Finally, they wrap up with the main convictions for some of the major global currencies, as well as the equity markets and some of the big things to watch in emerging markets.

Topics covered: Investment views, global outlook, growth, inflation, forecasts, economics, equities, tariffs, US, Europe, emerging markets,

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Capital Market Assumptions 2025 - Seeking potential in a pivoting world - Outerblue Talks Research

Fri, 09 May 2025 13:18:17 +0000

Against a backdrop of extraordinary global uncertainty, Amundi's 2025 capital market assumptions report explores the game changers that are shaping investment decisions and asset class return expectations. Join Giulio Lombardo as he speaks to Monica Defend, Head of the Amundi Investment Institute, and John O’Toole, Head of Multi-Asset Investment Solutions, to discover this year's main findings and what's changed since last year.

Identifying three major themes for this year, Amundi's 2025 capital market assumptions takes a closer look at new socio-economic scenarios with their higher geopolitical fragmentation and tariffs, it explores the impact of a delayed transition to net zero, and assesses the impact of artificial intelligence at a regional level.

We dig deeper into these big transformative trends, including the macroeconomic and technological shifts, more frequent extreme climate events, and a slow transition, and look at how they are impacting our expectations for long-term returns for different asset classes globally. We also analyse how they're affecting long-term projections for growth and inflation.

Finally, we look at how these developments may drive investment opportunities, particularly in Europe, and how investors can adjust their strategic asset allocation to incorporate these return expectations in their portfolios.

Topics covered: markets, investment, economic, finance, capital market assumptions, return expectations, forecasts, trade, inflation, growth, GDP, central banks, Europe, tariffs, portfolios, asset allocation, equities, fixed income, emerging markets, real assets

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Outerblue Responsible Investment - How do engagement and voting drive action on corporate sustainability?

Fri, 02 May 2025 09:06:43 +0000

In the fifth and last episode of our series on Shareholder Stewardship, Caroline Le Meaux, Global Head of ESG Research, Engagement, and Voting, and Edouard Dubois, Head of Proxy Voting, engage in a dynamic conversation on voting at annual general assemblies and how it is most effective when coupled with engagement with companies. Dialoguing with companies is very important in the voting activity: it can lead to improvements in companies strategies before or after the AGM has taken place.

This episode will explore what proxy voting is, and why it is important in an overall stewardship strategy of an asset manager. Many themes will be touched upon, including board compensation, Say on Climate resolutions, and filing shareholder resolutions to accelerate improvements in the climate strategy.

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Outerblue Talks Research - Seat belts fastened for the global economic rewire

Wed, 09 Apr 2025 07:06:02 +0000

The market roller coaster continues. After riding a wave of optimism in Europe in the wake of the German fiscal bazooka to increase defense spending, the confirmation of US tariffs sent markets suddenly plunging. What will be the economic impact of Trump’s approach to trade and tariffs? Swaha Pattanaik and Monica Defend, Head of the Amundi Investment Institute, sit down for a special edition of Outerblue Talks Research to discuss the latest market and economic developments and what these mean for investors.

We untangle some of the consequences and probable reactions, in the short, medium, and longer term. What will be the impacts on supply chains? How will GDP growth and inflation be impacted? Will we see a recession in the US and what will be reactions from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank? Finally, we detail some of our main calls for investors looking to increase portfolio resilience in this uncertain market environment.

Topics covered: markets, investment, economic, finance, volatility, tariffs, trade, inflation, growth, GDP, central banks, US, Europe, Trump, portfolios

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Outerblue Responsible Investment - Driving Action on Social Cohesion through Shareholder Engagement

Mon, 07 Apr 2025 12:39:55 +0000

In the fourth episode of our five-part series on Shareholder Stewardship, Esther Law, Senior Investment Manager, Emerging Markets Debt and Responsible Investing Lead, and Luda Svystunova, Head of Social Research, engage in a dynamic conversation on shareholder engagement on social cohesion - linking human capital and human rights engagements to responsible investors financial considerations, as well as client and societal responsibilities of issuers.

The engagement agenda on social issues continues to expand as new challenges and opportunities for companies and investors emerge in response to societal, regulatory and technological shifts. In this episode, the discussion centers on Amundi’s stewardship on social issues, the materiality and interlinkages between human capital and human rights, as well as their relationship to climate. Additionally, it also focuses on the impact that technology, especially artificial intelligence, is having on the companies’ responsible conduct agenda and how this is factored into our engagement process.

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Outerblue Convictions – Global Investment Views – Europe rallies behind historic German spending bill

Wed, 02 Apr 2025 09:31:18 +0000

In this month's review of the latest developments on the global economy and in financial markets, we focus on the seismic shifts that have been happening in Europe in the past few weeks, in particular, the historic spending package approved by the German parliament. Swaha Pattanaik and Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Investment Institute, catch-up to discuss the remarkable change in policy, and its implications for Germany and the wider Eurozone.

Will the rally in European markets continue and what opportunities does this open up on the equity and fixed income markets? The episode continues by examining the monetary policy outlook in Europe and how this compares to the projections for US growth.

Finally, we look at whether the Chinese stimulus package announcement has changed our view on the economic and market outlook for China.

This month's topics: Germany, Europe, Defense spending, Markets, Growth, Inflation, Equity, Fixed income, US, China, Monetary policy, Interest rates

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Outerblue Talks Research - US fixed income - Early pain, later gain?

Tue, 11 Mar 2025 14:06:10 +0000

Less than 2 months back in the White House, US president Donald Trump has packed in a great deal; Shifts in policy, tariffs, federal employment, not to mention a huge change in approach to foreign policy. This month, Swaha Pattanaik sits down with Jonathan Duensing, Head of Fixed Income at Amundi US, and Mahmood Pradhan, Head of Global Macro with the Amundi Investment Institute, to try to guide us through the present uncertainty in the markets.

They examine how these different issues have been affecting the US economy as a whole, and fixed income markets in particular and explore where investors can find the best opportunities at the moment. How long will the current pain last, and when and where will the promised gains be realised? They discuss the extent to which the roadmap given during the election campaign has changed and how this is impacting market growth. Will Trump succeed in reducing government spending and what challenges will he face? They finish by drawing on their wealth of experience in previous crises to give their view on whether the current crisis is any differentand what it might mean for fixed income investors.

Topics: Fixed income ▪ Markets ▪ Bonds ▪ Investment ▪ Finance ▪ Research ▪ US economy ▪ Tariffs ▪ Trade ▪ Analysis ▪ Growth

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Outerblue Responsible Investment - Driving Action on Nature-Related Risks through Shareholder Engagement

Thu, 06 Mar 2025 16:55:05 +0000

In the third episode of our five-part series on Shareholder Stewardship, Molly Minton and Julien Foll, both Senior Analysts and Co-leads on Nature at Amundi, engage in a dynamic conversation on shareholder engagement on biodiversity - linking nature-related engagements to the financial considerations of responsible investment.

More than half of the world’s GDP depends on natural resources and pressures on biodiversity and ecosystems present acute risks for investors and society at large. This episode will explore how Amundi uses the framework of the planetary boundaries as a tool to identify key engagement priorities around nature to encourage corporates to better address nature related impacts and risks within responsible investment while also capturing new business opportunities.

Topics: Responsible investment ▪ ESG ▪ Stewardship ▪ Engagement ▪ Nature ▪ Biodiversity ▪ Natural Resources ▪ Research ▪ Investment insights ▪ Corporate responsibility

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Outerblue Convictions – Global Investment Views – Narratives of love and fear

Thu, 27 Feb 2025 08:13:12 +0000

Our monthly podcast providing our latest investment views and market analysis.

After an eventful month trying to keep up with the breaking news, not least the debut of new AI model Deepseek, concerns over Trump’s tariff proposals, and European security concerns, Swaha Pattanaik and Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Investment Institute, sit down to reflect on what all these events mean for the markets.

Find out what is driving the equity and fixed income markets and whether we can expect the current gold rush to continue. What were the outcomes of the Munich Security Conference? Have tariffs impacted China’s growth prospects? Where is the US dollar likely to go next? This jam-packed episode takes a look at all the major market events of the month and how these impact our investment views.

This month's topics: Investment views ▪ Market analysis ▪ Equity ▪ Fixed income ▪ emerging markets ▪ Trump ▪ Tariffs ▪ Gold ▪ China ▪ currency

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Outerblue Conversations – Seeking returns in a disruptive era? Analysis of the 2024 pension survey

Thu, 20 Feb 2025 14:57:11 +0000

Each year, Amundi and CREATE interview pension plans to highlight topics shaping the pension ecosystem. As pension investors transition to a new regime, this year, one question is at the top of everyone’s minds: where will the returns come from? The 2024 survey takes a closer look at two of the potential answers in this search for good risk-adjusted returns: private markets and Asian emerging markets.

Sofia Santarsiero, Head of Institutional Business Solutions & Innovation, talks to Professor Amin Rajan, CEO of CREATE Research, the co-author of the report, to find out more about how and why pension funds’ attitudes to these two asset classes are changing. They discuss the preferred ways for pension funds to invest and what has been driving, or constraining, allocations.

Topics: Pensions ▪ Retirement ▪ Private markets ▪ Private assets ▪ Emerging markets ▪ Asia ▪ Market analysis ▪ Research ▪ Finance ▪ survey

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Outerblue Responsible Investment - Driving Climate Action through Shareholder Engagement

Thu, 06 Feb 2025 16:04:35 +0000

In the second episode of our five-part series on Shareholder Stewardship, Aaron McDougall, Head of Climate & Ciaran Callaghan, Head of European Equity Research engage in a dynamic conversation on shareholder engagement on climate - linking climate engagements to responsible investors financial considerations.

They also discuss Amundi’s commitment to playing its part in achieving the objectives of the Paris Agreement, by helping clients willing to take climate risks and opportunities into account within their investments. They emphasize how Amundi engages with issuers to together achieve a pragmatic transition for the decarbonization of supply chains, products & portfolios, balancing the imperatives of both climate and investors.

Finally, they explore best practices in climate engagements and voting, drawing on real-world case studies from Amundi’s interactions with issuers.

Podcast topics: Responsible investment ▪ Climate ▪ Engagement ▪ Equity ▪ Investor ▪ Energy transition ▪ Supply chains ▪ portfolio

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Outerblue Convictions – Global Investment Views – Goldilocks ahead of new Trump presidency

Mon, 20 Jan 2025 13:25:56 +0000

2025 got off to a dramatic start with an unexpected jump in bond yields. What has been driving this move and do we expect it to continue? Swaha Pattanaik and Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Investment Institute, share their investment views and explain what’s been happening in the US and UK and explore what these mean for our growth and interest rate forecasts.

We also look closer at what potential policy shifts from incoming US President Trump, and the associated international response, could mean for the markets.

Topics of this episode: Investment views ▪ Market analysis ▪ Fixed income ▪ Bonds ▪ US ▪ UK ▪ economy ▪ Growth ▪ Interest rates ▪ Forecast

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Outerblue Talks Research – Looking for clues ahead of a second Trump presidency

Tue, 10 Dec 2024 08:58:26 +0000

After a campaign full of twists and turns, November saw the re-election of Donald Trump for a second term as US president. In this edition, we take a look at the geopolitical and economic ramifications of a new Trump presidency. Swaha Pattanaik sat down at the end of November with Anna Rosenberg, Head of Geopolitics at the Amundi Investment Institute and Paresh Upadhyaya, Director of Fixed Income and Currency Strategies, Amundi US, to discuss what lies ahead for the USA and the rest of the world.

Beyond the attention grabbing threats of tariffs, what are the realistic expectations for trade policy and how is China likely to react? How might Trump’s second term differ from his first and what clues can we gain from his cabinet and staff appointments? Our experts examine these questions and what this might mean for the US economy in terms of inflation and interest rates and where we might expect surprises.

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Outerblue Convictions – Global Investment Views – Analysing the bright spots in a Trump 2.0 world

Fri, 29 Nov 2024 17:10:34 +0000

In the past few weeks, economists have been busy writing their predications for what might lie ahead of us in the next 12 months. This year, the task was made harder by the US elections, the strong chance of a shift in policy, and the potential spill over to other regions.

Swaha Pattanaik and Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Investment Institute, discuss what has been happening in the markets as they ride the “Trump wave”, and whether we can expect this to continue. What will be the consequences for Europe and China if a new round of tariffs are implemented, and are we going to see a return to the currencies wars of 2010?

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Outerblue Talks Research - The Artificial Intelligence revolution

Fri, 29 Nov 2024 07:49:34 +0000

This episode returns to the topic of artificial intelligence. Since we last covered this topic earlier in the year, there have been even more advances in what generative AI can do and ever increasing interest in how AI can be used across the corporate value chain.

Swaha Pattanaik is joined by Ben Lucas, Chief Executive Officer of Amundi Technology, to talk all about how AI has been shaking up the corporate landscape. They dig into whether there’s been a shift in sentiment towards AI, particularly on how long it will take to see return on investment. They also discuss the impacts across society from us as individuals right up to the role of governments. What are the risks to consider and the geopolitical challenges? To conclude, they look at what we should expect in the next wave of developments.

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Outerblue Responsible Investment - How is Shareholder Stewardship shaping the future of corporate sustainability?

Tue, 19 Nov 2024 09:32:37 +0000

Stewardship activities, like engagement and voting, are increasingly seen as effective tools for promoting corporate accountability, enhancing long-term value, and driving sustainability.

In the first episode of our engaging five-part series on Shareholder Stewardship, Caroline Le Meaux, Global Head of ESG Research, Engagement, and Voting, and Andriy Boychuk, Head of EM Research, delve into the crucial role of shareholder stewardship in advancing corporate sustainability through proactive engagement with issuers and responsible voting at annual general meetings. They provide a comprehensive understanding of why active stewardship is essential for ensuring long-term resilience and sustainable returns.

Additionally, they also share best practices by highlighting real-world case studies from interactions with issuers and review the outcomes of Amundi’s 2023 engagement and voting season.

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Outerblue Convictions – Global Investment Views – Perspectives on the US elections

Wed, 30 Oct 2024 08:31:29 +0000

After many months of build-up and speculation, the 2024 US election is almost here. Over the past few weeks, financial markets have become increasingly focused on the candidate’s platforms and what these might imply for the economy and markets. How could markets react to Trump and Harris’ different proposals on taxation, trade and immigration? Swaha Pattanaik and Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Investment Institute, sit down for their regular catch-up and examine the different policies, how these are driving markets and what investors should look out for once the winner is announced.

Further afield, this edition also considers the different impacts the US election results may have on the rest of the world, particularly China, especially if the new president announces a new wave of tariffs. Will China’s recent policy shift committing to fiscal and monetary stimulus reverse their economic slowdown and how will this play out in the markets?

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Outerblue Convictions – Global Investment Views – Ears to ground

Mon, 07 Oct 2024 10:24:01 +0000

Focus over the past month has been fixed on central bank policy, most particularly on the Federal Reserve. Their September meeting finally brought the Fed’s first rate cut in four years. What are the core points for investors to note? Swaha Pattanaik and Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Investment Institute, unpack all the elements to look at the data, the market expectations, the surprises, and what might be next for the other central banks.

The episode continues with a review of the movements in the equity markets as we continue to see large divergences in valuations. We also turn to China, as markets anticipate it might emerge from a period of gloom with a new fiscal stimulus package that could be a gamechanger. Finally, we look at the bond markets and how the differences in this economic cycle requires a flexible approach to fixed income.

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Outerblue Convictions – Global Investment Views – Back to reality

Tue, 17 Sep 2024 10:39:07 +0000

This August financial markets went on a rollercoaster ride. Stock markets started the month with huge declines and soaring volatility, before recovering towards month end. What lessons should investors take away from this summer’s events, as the market jitters continue into September?

Swaha Pattanaik and Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Investment Institute, catch us up on recent events and discuss what might be in store in the jam-packed end to year.

They take a closer look at some of the factors driving markets as the importance of fundamentals is back in focus. Finally, Monica shares our views on the major bond, equity and foreign exchange markets and explains why our growth and inflation projections remain unchanged.

Discover the article : https://research-center.amundi.com/article/global-investment-views-september-2024

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Outerblue Convictions – H2 24 Outlook – It’s all about confidence

Fri, 12 Jul 2024 09:20:41 +0000

A lot has happened in global economies, markets and geopolitics in the last six months. This outlook special looks back at what has happened in 2024 to date, how this has impacted markets, and what we should expect for the second half of the year. Swaha Pattanaik and Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Investment Institute, discuss why they think the current environment really is “all about confidence”.

Uncertainty looks set to continue and the major global economies and regions are likely to remain on different growth paths. In this environment, Monica explains what the next developments could mean for investment, and why investors should be focusing on selectivity and solid convictions to build resilient portfolios. They also discuss which geopolitical risk factors we are particularly focused on for investing in both the short- and medium-term.

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Outerblue Convictions – Global Investment Views – Trends steering markets

Thu, 04 Jul 2024 09:37:27 +0000

It’s been a busy month for central bank interest rate decisions, but while the European Central Bank, the Bank of Canada and Swiss National Bank have chosen to cut rates, the Federal Reserve is still pondering the timing of its next move. Swaha Pattanaik and Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Investment Institute, catch-up to discuss the latest indications from policymakers, particularly following this week’s ECB Sintra Forum. They also look at how much domestic politics have been driving financial markets following the results of the elections in Europe, and as we wait the final outcome in France and the UK.

As approaches to monetary policy continue to divergence on each side of the Atlantic and the geopolitical environments remain uncertain, they examine how all these events feed through into our investment convictions. Discover our main views on the different asset classes and regions and the key themes to look out for this month.

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Outerblue Convictions – Global Investment Views – Data driving diverging paths

Tue, 04 Jun 2024 07:44:11 +0000

Three factors are driving today’s global markets; economic growth, inflation and the outlook for monetary policy. Central banks are increasingly dependent on data and inflation remains their chief cause of concern. It is becoming clear that divergences are opening up in policy and outlook in the US and in Europe. On one side a clear path has appeared, where on the other, this path is still surrounded by uncertainty.

Swaha Pattanaik and Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Investment Institute, sit down to discuss how these aspects feed through to markets and investment convictions and take a closer look at the different asset classes. What do these mean for equity valuations, sectors and regional divergences? How does the higher-for-longer scenario impact the credit markets? They also take a closer look at Japan and why it has been attracting a huge amount of international interest in recent months.

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Outerblue Talks Research – Capital Market Assumptions 2024

Fri, 17 May 2024 14:23:47 +0000

Our capital market assumption forecasts look more closely at the themes that shape the financial market landscape and aim to help steer investors over the medium to long-term. This year the publication considers how climate delays and productivity gains from artificial intelligence are likely to drive a reordering of asset class profiles and the role played by geopolitical tensions.

Swaha Pattanaik catches up with Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Investment Institute and John O’Toole, Head of Multi Asset Investment Solutions, to find out what’s changed in the assumptions since last year and how these feed into the return forecasts. They discuss our base scenario for energy transition and the impacts of artificial intelligence and how all these complex elements might influence GDP, inflation and asset class returns.

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Outerblue Convictions – Global Investment Views: Bright spots in a trickier phase?

Mon, 06 May 2024 13:20:44 +0000

The uncertainties faced by financial markets over the recent months have been making forecaster’s lives difficult. The two big questions over growth and inflation continue to preoccupy. Swaha Pattanaik and Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Investment Institute, discuss what’s been catching their attention over the past month and how these factors are influencing projections.

Can the US economy maintain the resilience shown so far and will growth continue on an upward trend? How sticky will inflation prove to be? This month discusses how these two elements are crucial to understanding the next steps for the Federal Reserve and, consequently, market direction. It also looks at how these factors are playing out across the different regions and asset classes.

Read The Global Investment Views of the month

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Outerblue Convictions – Global Investment Views: The late-cycle environment continues to play out

Fri, 29 Mar 2024 10:50:56 +0000

Recent weeks have seen gains in the Magnificent Seven with rallies spreading across other sectors and US and European equities setting record highs. But how much longer can the equity markets keep rising and what has been driving this climb? Giulio Lombardo and Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Investment Institute, take a closer look at the reasons behind this upsurge and whether we should expect a reversal soon. Also on an upward trajectory this month was gold. They discuss what’s been going on.

This edition also returns to the big question for markets, interest rate cuts, and whether a summer rate cut is still on the cards for the Fed. Will other central banks follow the Fed’s lead or are they plotting their own course? This month’s edition concludes with an update on fixed income and emerging markets, what recent moves have meant for these asset classes and where investors should be looking for opportunities.

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Outerblue Convictions - Global Investment Views: Market debate rages on

Fri, 01 Mar 2024 11:59:53 +0000

The last month has, to a large extent, seen a reversal in investors’ expectations for central bank actions. This has been the hot topic for financial markets over the past few weeks as these expectations filter down into financial data and continue to drive asset prices. However signs of a slowdown are appearing. What factors will be most important to judge market direction going forward?

Swaha Pattanaik and Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Investment Institute, discuss the state of play and whether the current market sentiment has changed Amundi’s own views. They talk about what’s driving the interest rate cuts as well as the timing and likely sizes of the cuts in the major global economies. They cover what these changes mean for Amundi’s investment convictions across asset classes and regions, and finish by discussing the FX markets and where investors could look for opportunities.

Discover the related article: click here

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Outerblue Talks Research – The rise of AI: Will it increase economic growth?

Wed, 28 Feb 2024 11:13:01 +0000

Advances in artificial intelligence have unleashed a new wave of technological revolution, one that promises a torrent of disruption across both financial markets and our daily lives. The speed of transformation has sparked widespread concern, not least about the impact it could have on jobs across a whole range of sectors.

As demand surges and generative AI is said to reach the “tipping point” of mainstream adoption, Swaha Pattanaik sits down with Annalisa Usardi, Senior Economist at Amundi Investment Institute, and Bastian Drut, Head of Thematic Macro Strategy at CPR Asset Management, to discuss the transformative impact of the technology and its implications for economies in the short and longer term. They take a closer look at the impact AI might have on productivity, growth and the labour markets, when and where this will most be felt, and how AI might ultimately be a positive development for addressing demographic challenges.

Click here to discover more on this topic.

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Outerblue Responsible Investment: Exploring perceptions of equal opportunities with Romina Boarini, Director of the OECD WISE Centre

Mon, 05 Feb 2024 14:22:18 +0000

Promoting social mobility and equality of opportunity remains a pressing concern for many countries, challenging the very fabric of our society. Hence, understanding the perceptions and representations of equal opportunities is essential to catalyse collective action and support corrective measures.

A survey conducted by the OECD with the support of Amundi across 27 OECD countries delves into the perceptions and attitudes surrounding inequality and explores what truly matters for the population in the fight for equal opportunities.

In this podcast, Romina Boarini, Director of the OECD WISE Centre, reveals the survey’s main outcomes on the different aspects of inequality, the factors that are seen as playing a major role in climbing the social ladder as well as on the role that different actors are expected to play in reducing inequality and the type of policies and actions that could be prioritised.

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Outerblue Convictions - Global Investment Views - Central banks still centre stage

Thu, 01 Feb 2024 14:17:30 +0000

We may only be a few weeks into 2024, but the markets have been anything but quiet. After a rocky period at the end of the year, bonds and equities eventually returned to positive territory in January, with the notable exception of China. Central banks remain centre stage, as markets continue to speculate over their next steps.

Swaha Pattanaik and Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Investment Institute, talk over the different forecasts for the next few months and why inflation expectations might prevail over growth when it comes to the timing of interest rate cuts. They also discuss how geopolitical risks might impact some of the main economic indicators. They take a closer look at demand in US and China and the factors that are driving their respective economies. Finally, Monica explains how these factors filter through to Amundi’s current investment convictions, detailing the main views on equities, fixed income, currencies and emerging markets.

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Outerblue Responsible Investment – The rise of responsible investing in Asia

Wed, 20 Dec 2023 16:35:06 +0000

Asia faces distinct and complex challenges when it comes to the energy transition as it looks to balance economic development with the necessity to transition to a low carbon economy. The continent is home to around 60% of the world’s population and has significant exposure to the physical risks of climate change, seen in severe floods and heatwaves. At the same time, it also has extensive and affordable renewable energy resources, which gives the continent a unique opportunity to develop its economy using these vast resources.

In this podcast, we look at the role of investment in advancing the energy transition in Asia and talk to some of Amundi’s experts across Asia to learn more about the responsible investment trends, initiatives and policy developments happening in their regions. We also discuss some of the main challenges that need to be overcome and the trends for investors to look out for in the months ahead.

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Outerblue Convictions – Global Investment Views: What stands out amongst the Santa Rally?

Wed, 20 Dec 2023 09:20:59 +0000

In our last Convictions podcast of the year, Swaha Pattanaik and Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Investment Institute, sat down last week to discuss whether any of the recent policy comments or economic data publications might have impacted our main calls for 2024. Are we aligned with the general consensus on when to expect interest rate cuts? What are our expectations for rates by the end of 2024? Persistent inflation levels means patience may be required.

They continue the discussions with a focus on Japan, as the country is following a different economic pathway. What are the expectations for the Bank of Japan and what might this mean for investors? The podcast finishes with a look at the themes and regions that might offer potential investment opportunities in fixed income, equities and in emerging markets over the next few months.

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Outerblue Convictions – Steering through turning tides in 2024

Wed, 22 Nov 2023 17:09:51 +0000

A special edition of Amundi’s monthly Convictions podcast focusing on the outlook for developed markets in 2024. The theme of renewed global disorder has been a topic of conversation for some years, emerging from a convergence of ideological, economic, political and technological transitions. These transitions spread uncertainty on a global scale and have a knock-on effect on how and when policymakers react. 2024 will be a year of transition, of turning tides, in growth, inflation and monetary policy.

Swaha Pattanaik and Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Investment Institute, take a closer look at Amundi’s outlook for 2024 and what this new global disorder means for markets and investments. What are the main expectations for 2024 in terms of growth across the main regions? When should we expect central banks to start cutting rates? They also discuss some of the main investment risks from the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and its implications for asset allocation. They finish by taking broader look at some of the investment opportunities that may arise from longer term themes.

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Outerblue Talks Research – What awaits emerging markets in 2024?

Mon, 20 Nov 2023 13:14:55 +0000

This emerging markets outlook special edition looks ahead to 2024. While a slowdown is expected in developed markets, emerging markets (EM) are likely to prove more resilient next year with the growth premium over developed markets continuing to widen.

Swaha Pattanaik speaks to Vincent Mortier, Amundi’s Group Chief Investment Officer and Yerlan Syzdykov, Global Head of Emerging Markets at Amundi to find out what’s in store and why 2024 is expected to be a year of two halves for emerging markets. They discuss what the forecasts might mean for EM equities, hard and local currency fixed income and FX. They take a closer look at the prospects for the Asian superpowers of China and India and consider which regions and countries might benefit or lose out amid increased global fragmentation and the critical issue of energy transition.

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Outerblue Convictions – Global Investment Views: Look out for growth, but with an eye on inflation

Thu, 26 Oct 2023 15:04:15 +0000

Against the backdrop of recent escalation of tensions in the Middle East, Swaha Pattanaik and Monica Defend, Head of the Amundi Investment Institute, sat down earlier this week to discuss the big themes that are dominating markets. In addition to the ongoing geopolitical risks, they spoke in depth about recession concerns as well as how much they expect the U.S. and European economies to slow. This month’s podcast finishes with a look at the outlook for fixed income and equities and some of the challenges for which investors need to watch out.

Discover more on the article:

https://research-center.amundi.com/article/global-investment-views-november-2023

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Outerblue Talks Research – Beyond crypto; Understanding central bank digital currencies

Fri, 06 Oct 2023 09:27:22 +0000

Payment habits have evolved dramatically over the last few decades. The use of cash has been shrinking for some time, but this phenomenon was rapidly accelerated by the Covid crisis. In parallel, technological advances have seen the use of digital currencies become more popular amongst consumers and cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin become household names. In response to this dramatic rise in the use of decentralised money, many central banks have been exploring the launch of their own central bank digital currencies (CBDC).

Join Swaha Pattanaik and Tristan Perrier, Macroeconomist & Investment Insights Specialist with the Amundi Investment Institute, as they delve into the world of CBDCs. What are they exactly and why are they being developed? They take a closer look at the development of CBDCs around the world and examine some of the risks and implications of this type of digital currency, as well as their potential benefits.

Discover CBDCs: where do the projects and debates stand? https://research-center.amundi.com/article/cbdcs-where-do-project-and-debate-stand

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Outerblue Convictions – Global Investment Views: Inflation stabilises, but policy dilemma continues

Wed, 27 Sep 2023 17:26:16 +0000

Autumn made a hasty arrival to Europe in mid-September and it was accompanied by a multitude of monetary policy meetings. The current tightening cycle has seen plenty of interest rate hikes. But this new round of meetings show how central banks appear undecided on their next steps in light of the mixed signals coming from their economies. What will this cautious stance from central banks mean for the world’s economies?

Swaha Pattanaik and Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Investment Institute, sat down earlier this week to discuss the expectations for growth in major economies in the coming months. They talk about the possible implications of the recent spike in energy prices and what we should expect for interest rate policies around the world for the rest of the year. This month’s episode finishes with a look at the outlook for fixed income and equities and some of the challenges for which investors need to watch out.

Discover more on the article:

https://research-center.amundi.com/article/global-investment-views-october-2023

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Outerblue Convictions – Global Investment Views: Divergences persist as we head into autumn

Wed, 13 Sep 2023 14:47:31 +0000

For many, September has a back to school feel about it after a long break and is often the chance for a bit of a refresh. This summer, markets certainly weren’t on holiday, as August saw corrections and volatility, whilst there was also further softening in economic data, particularly in Europe and China.

Swaha Pattanaik and Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Investment Institute, catch-up to discuss the key economic developments that emerged over the summer and the outlook for the next few months. How will policymakers react as they continue to balance fighting inflation against economic slowdown? Is the resilience seen in the US likely to continue and what are the growth and inflation expectations for the major global economies? They also examine what these forecasts would imply for portfolios across the different asset classes.

Discover more on the article:

https://research-center.amundi.com/article/global-investment-views-september-2023

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Outerblue Talks Research – Parallels with the 70s. The long and winding road continues

Thu, 10 Aug 2023 10:12:13 +0000

Whilst fashion trends regularly make come-backs, revivals in economic trends are a lot less frequent. The double-digit inflation rates seen over the past two years have left many wondering whether other hallmarks of the 1970s are also due for a return and what can be learnt from previous missteps as we transition to a new economic model.

Swaha Pattanaik speaks to Tristan Perrier, Macroeconomist & Investment Insights Specialist with the Amundi Institute, as he reflects on some of the similarities and the differences between the two periods and examines some of the risks faced as policymakers try to bring inflation back to target. They also discuss how the current period of high inflation could pave the way for a transition in a new direction and look forward to what a structurally higher level of inflation could mean for monetary and fiscal policy. Finally, they review the potential long and short term investment implications of these different economic scenarios.

Discover 2020s vs 1970s: echoes, not a replay article: https://research-center.amundi.com/article/2020s-vs-1970s-echoes-not-replay

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Outerblue Convictions – Global Investment Views: Receding inflation doesn’t mean the battle is won yet

Mon, 24 Jul 2023 14:39:02 +0000

After months of rising rates, there could be good news for central banks as we start to see signs that inflation is finally cooling down.

Swaha Pattanaik and Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Institute, discuss the main trends impacting global monetary policy cycle, taking a closer look at the desynchronisation between Developed and Emerging Markets.

Discover the Global Investment Views - August 2023 article: https://research-center.amundi.com/article/global-investment-views-june-2023">https://research-center.amundi.com/article/global-investment-views-august-2023

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DISCLAIMER: This podcast is only for the attention of “Professional” investors as defined in Directive 2004/39/EC dated 21 April 2004 on markets in financial instruments (“MIFID”), investment services providers and any other professional of the financial industry. Views are subject to change and should not be relied upon as investment advice on behalf of Amundi.

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Outerblue Talks Research - Geopolitical shifts shaping investments

Thu, 20 Jul 2023 12:36:11 +0000

Geopolitics has become an ever increasing concern for financial markets over the past few years. Fractures and shifts in alliances are transforming the global economy and trade relationships.

Swaha Pattanaik sits down with Anna Rosenberg, Amundi’s Head of Geopolitics, and Francesco Sandrini, Amundi’s Head of Multi-Asset Strategies to discuss whether we’ve now reached a “new normal” and what some of the implications will be for investment flows both now and in the years ahead. They take a closer look at the pivotal relationship between the world’s two biggest economies, the USA and China, and examine how trade has evolved, particularly in terms of exploiting natural resources. Find out which sectors and geographies will be most impacted by the evolving relationships and who will be the overall winners and losers in this geopolitical struggle.

Discover Geopolitical shifts shaping investments article: https://research-center.amundi.com/article/geopolitical-shifts-and-investment-implications

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Outerblue Convictions – H2 Outlook - Opportunities beyond a precarious path to growth

Fri, 30 Jun 2023 16:12:11 +0000

This month’s episode is a special focus on the macro-economic outlook and investment themes for 2023 and beyond.

Swaha Pattanaik and Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Institute, discuss Amundi’s expectations for growth and inflation for the coming months and what this might mean for central bank monetary policy.

Monica also shares some of the things featuring on her crowded Wall of Worries this month, and talks about some of the areas and asset classes to watch in terms of investment opportunities in the rest of the year.

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Outerblue Talks Research – Emerging renaissance

Tue, 30 May 2023 09:05:54 +0000

2022 was a year to forget for emerging markets, but so far 2023 has brought more optimism that emerging markets may be making a comeback.

Swaha Pattanaik speaks to Alessia Berardi, Amundi’s Head of Emerging Markets Research, to find out what she expects in terms of growth across the emerging regions and why they generally seem to be in better shape than developed markets this year. They take a closer look at the different asset classes and where investors might find value, as well as some of the risk factors to look out for. They also discuss the longer-term outlook for India and whether it can fulfil its growth potential.

Discover The emerging market comeback article: https://research-center.amundi.com/emerging-market-comeback

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Outerblue Convictions – Global Investment Views: All eyes on the debt ceiling

Fri, 26 May 2023 13:55:25 +0000

Washington remains firmly in the spotlight this month as the US debt ceiling negotiations remain at a deadlock. While a deal is expected sooner or later, what damage will be done in the meantime, especially as the economy in the United States had already been expected to slow?

Swaha Pattanaik speaks to Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Institute, for their regular catch up on the markets and asset allocation trends as they look more closely at the themes driving the markets this month and where investors should be focusing their attention in the weeks to come.

Discover the Global Investment Views - June 2023 article: https://research-center.amundi.com/article/global-investment-views-may-2023">https://research-center.amundi.com/article/global-investment-views-june-2023

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Outerblue Convictions – Global Investment Views: No time to change course

Tue, 25 Apr 2023 07:25:43 +0000

The turmoil of March may be behind us, but market signals are conflicted about what comes

next. A disconnect has appeared as bond markets look to price in a recession in the US, whilst on the equity side earnings expectations still appear overly optimistic. Against this back-drop, investors are wise to keep plotting a cautious course.

Swaha Pattanaik caught up with Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Institute, after her return from the IMF Spring Meetings, to find out what the mood in Washington was like and how it compares to Amundi’s own views on the outlook for global economies over the coming months.

Discover the Global Investment Views - May 2023 article: https://research-center.amundi.com/article/global-investment-views-april-2023">https://research-center.amundi.com/article/global-investment-views-may-2023

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Outerblue Talks Research – Financial stability concerns bring US recession concerns back to the fore

Tue, 11 Apr 2023 13:16:28 +0000

The banking turmoil of the past month saw the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in the United States and the 160-year old Credit Suisse being taken over by rival UBS. While the big market swings triggered by these events have now subsided, economic scars appear inevitable.

Swaha Pattanaik speaks to Mahmood Pradhan, Head of Global Macro Economics, to find out what has changed and why these events have tipped the balance towards a gloomier outlook in the US and a more protracted recession. They discuss what the impact on economic growth and monetary policy in the US might be and how this can have a knock-on effect on the labour market. They also turn their attention to Europe and the continued focus on the ECB’s fight against inflation.

Discover the Financial stability concerns to tip the balance towards a US recession article: https://research-center.amundi.com/article/financial-stability-concerns-tip-balance-towards-us-recession

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Outerblue Convictions - Global Investment Views: Crisis memories return in vulnerable markets

Mon, 27 Mar 2023 13:54:30 +0000

Markets were shaken out of complacency in March, as the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, wiftly followed by Credit Suisse in Europe, sounded alarm bells and triggered a sudden repricing of core yields as bond volatility reached levels not seen since the Great Financial Crisis.

Prompt reaction from key central banks showed they remember the lessons of past crises, but this time added concerns over growth and inflation make the challenge they face more difficult. How much of the unease over the banking sector is justified and we looking at a repeat of the 2008 global financial crisis?

Swaha Pattanaik catches up with Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Institute, for their monthly discussion on what’s been going on in the markets. This month’s focus inevitably starts with the events of the past two weeks as we find out what this means for growth and interest rate expectations more broadly. They also explore which regions and asset classes investors should be focusing on at the moment.

Discover the Global Investment Views - April 2023 article: https://research-center.amundi.com/article/global-investment-views-april-2023

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Outerblue Convictions - Global Investment Views: Rally fatigue: dichotomy between markets and economy too wide

Wed, 22 Feb 2023 11:27:14 +0000

It’s still early in 2023, but the markets have been broadly moving higher. What’s been driving the recent rally and how strong are its foundations?

Swaha Pattanaik caught up last week with Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Institute, to take a closer look at the bond and equity markets and the reasons why investors should show caution at this time.

Discover the Global Investment Views - March 2023 article: https://research-center.amundi.com/article/global-investment-views-march-2023

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Outerblue Talks Research - The Ukraine conflict: one year on. What should investors expect next?

Wed, 15 Feb 2023 17:02:13 +0000

One year after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the geopolitical, macroeconomic, and market fallouts continue to reverberate around the globe. Whilst these have been most apparent in Europe due to its close ties to Russia, the conflict has had ongoing implications worldwide and has put existing trade-frictions under further pressure.

Swaha Pattanaik talks to Mahmood Pradhan, head of global macroeconomics at the Amundi Institute, to discuss some of the likely developments in the conflict over the short and medium term, how Europe has been reshaped by the crisis and the wider impact on global supply chains and globalisation as a whole.

Discover the A year of war in Ukraine: accelerating the energy transition and fragmentation article: https://research-center.amundi.com/article/year-war-ukraine-accelerating-energy-transition-and-fragmentation

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Outerblue Convictions - Global Investment Views: Play market rotations, with a focus on China

Mon, 06 Feb 2023 14:38:18 +0000

Risky assets got off to a bumper start at the beginning of 2023, helped by more positive expectations for China following their reopening and hopes that the economic outlook in Europe might prove more resilient than previously thought. But how likely is it that this will last and could this be the start of a new positive cycle?

Swaha Pattanaik talks to Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Institute, to look at some of the big market trends investors should be looking out for over the next few months as they try to shed some light on what might happen next.

Discover the Global Investment Views - February 2023 article: https://research-center.amundi.com/article/global-investment-views-december-2022 "> https://research-center.amundi.com/article/global-investment-views-february-2023

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Outerblue Responsible Investment – The role of investment in protecting Earth’s crucial biodiversity

Tue, 20 Dec 2022 08:43:30 +0000

Biodiversity is all around us. It underpins not only our economy but also our very existence. Yet we are only in the early stages of understanding how essential a healthy environment is to a
stable and well-functioning society. While climate change has long been capturing the headlines, the importance of biodiversity is now also coming to the fore, especially as it is recognised that climate change and biodiversity loss are inherently linked.

In this podcast, we examine why biodiversity decline represents not only a threat to our society as a whole, but also a significant risk to individual businesses. We also look at some of the obstacles that need to be overcome and the essential role investors play in encouraging action on biodiversity.

Discover the Biodiversity loss – The role of investment in protecting Earth’s crucial biodiversity articles:

https://research-center.amundi.com/article/biodiversity-it-s-time-protect-our-only-home-ndeg1-it-time-sound-alarm-biodiversity

https://research-center.amundi.com/article/biodiversity-it-s-time-protect-our-only-home-ndeg2-addressing-biodiversity-loss-call-action

https://research-center.amundi.com/article/esg-thema-10-there-no-place-earth-how-investors-can-address-biodiversity-loss

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Outerblue Talks Research - 2023 Outlook – Some light for investors after the storm

Mon, 12 Dec 2022 08:23:12 +0000

2022 has been a tough year for investors, as both bonds and equities experienced significant repricing as the environment of rising interest rates, persistent inflation pressures and geopolitical conflicts hit investor confidence. For bonds in particular, 2022 was their worst annual performance in a century. All this means that hopes for some respite in the near future are high. In 2023, inflation and Central Bank responses to this will continue to dominate investor agenda, alongside concerns over the energy crisis in Europe, recovery in China and global geopolitical tensions.

Swaha Pattanaik talks Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Institute, to explore some of the key themes to look out for in 2023 and whether investors finally have some reasons to be positive.

Discover the 2023 Investment Outlook - Some light for investors after the storm article:

https://research-center.amundi.com/article/2023-investment-outlook-some-light-investors-after-storm">https://research-center.amundi.com/article/2023-investment-outlook-some-light-investors-after-storm

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Outerblue Convictions - Global Investment Views: A relief rally, excess optimism overdone

Mon, 05 Dec 2022 14:05:24 +0000

Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Institute, shares her views and talks about Amundi’s investment convictions in this month's podcast.

The significant market trends at play are addressed, along with the macro economic outlook post US CPI data publication, China’s growth outlook for 2023 and the earnings’ season results, to conclude with Amundi’s asset allocation.

Discover the Global Investment Views - December 2022 article: https://research-center.amundi.com/article/global-investment-views-november-2022 "> https://research-center.amundi.com/article/global-investment-views-december-2022

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DISCLAIMER: This podcast is only for the attention of
“Professional” investors as defined in Directive 2004/39/EC dated 21 April 2004
on markets in financial instruments (“MIFID”), investment services providers
and any other professional of the financial industry. Views are subject to
change and should not be relied upon as investment advice on behalf of Amundi.

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Outerblue Convictions - Global Investment Views: Fed pivot is not around the corner

Thu, 27 Oct 2022 10:07:44 +0000

Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Institute, shares her views and talks about Amundi’s investment convictions in this month's podcast.

Although the peak in US inflation is likely behind us, core inflation remains sticky. Central banks around the world seem determined to keep up the tightening pace, despite the deteriorating economic outlook. As earnings season kicks off, downward revision in the US and Europe suggest that the probability of an economic recession is on the rise. Against a backdrop of high-inflation/low-growth, where should investors turn?

Discover the Global Investment Views - November 2022 article: https://research-center.amundi.com/article/global-investment-views-november-2022

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DISCLAIMER: This podcast is only for the attention of
“Professional” investors as defined in Directive 2004/39/EC dated 21 April 2004
on markets in financial instruments (“MIFID”), investment services providers
and any other professional of the financial industry. Views are subject to
change and should not be relied upon as investment advice on behalf of Amundi.

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Outerblue Responsible Investment - Low carbon power alternatives - Assessing the potential of the main players

Fri, 21 Oct 2022 16:10:35 +0000

Decarbonising the power sector will be crucial as part of worldwide efforts to limit global warming.Today, the power sector accounts for almost 40% of global energy - and industry - related carbon emissions. Whilst solar and wind power remain central to meeting net zero goals, a significant portion of future energy supplies will need to come from other low-carbon power solutions.

In this podcast, we explore some of the main alternatives, the role each could play in reducing emissions, as well as their potential short-comings. We will also look at the progress being made in developing each technology and assess whether the solution is on track to help meet net zero targets.

Discover more on our related article:

ESG Thema #6 - Carbon-efficient technologies in the race to Net Zero

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DISCLAIMER: This podcast is only for the attention of “Professional” investors as defined in Directive 2004/39/EC dated 21 April 2004 on markets in financial instruments (“MIFID”), investment services providers and any other professional of the financial industry. Views are subject to change and should not be relied upon as investment advice on behalf of Amundi.

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Outerblue Talks Research - After the great repricing, is it time to go back to bonds?

Fri, 14 Oct 2022 07:04:57 +0000

Inflation levels not seen in more than a generation have triggered this year a repricing of the financial markets, most particularly in the fixed income world. The era of low or negative interest rates has come to an end. Meanwhile, whilst inflation has moved higher, growth rates have slowed and the extent of the Central banks’ commitment to fighting inflation is being questioned. This new market context and uncertainty has caused huge moves in the bond markets so far this year, but signs are now pointing to the beginning of a second stage; a period of stabilisation.

Swaha Pattanaik talks to Vincent Mortier, Amundi Group Chief Investment Officer, and Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Institute, to discover what’s been going on and if the recent rises in yields mean now is the time to go “Back to Bonds”?

Discover more on our related article:

https://research-center.amundi.com/article/time-refocus-bonds-rethinking-portfolios-after-great-repricing">Time to refocus on bonds - Rethinking portfolios after the great repricing

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Outerblue Convictions - Global Investment Views: Bonds yields now more appealing

Tue, 11 Oct 2022 09:28:37 +0000

Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Institute, shares her views and talks about Amundi’s investment convictions in this month's podcast.
A review of the recent market sell off, the FX market volatility, the winter energy supply and our main asset allocation convictions.

Discover the Global Investment Views - October 2022 article: https://research-center.amundi.com/article/global-investment-views-october-2022

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Outerblue Talks Research - Regime shift on the horizon in the global currency markets

Wed, 14 Sep 2022 17:17:51 +0000

For many years the US dollar has dominated the world’s currency markets, acting as an international reserve currency. At one point it was thought that the euro would come to
challenge the US dollar, but to date no alternative reserve currency has yet proved credible. Now today, against a backdrop of deglobalisation, geopolitical crisis and a new inflationary regime, the dollar’s status as a “safe” asset is being put to the test. The focus has turned to China, a much bigger player than Europe on the global stage. Has the time come for the renminbi to emerge as a viable alternative to the dollar?

Tristan Perrier, economics insight specialist at the Amundi Institute, explains some of the shifts and misalignments that have been occurring in the global currency order and whether we should expect countries to respond with coordinated or competitive currency intervention. He also talks about what a new global FX system could look like over the longer term and how the shifting patterns could ultimately impact investors.

Discover the relative article : “Upheaval in the global FX regime ”

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Outerblue Convictions - Global Investment Views - Market Views September 2022

Thu, 08 Sep 2022 13:17:49 +0000

Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Institute, shares her views and talks about Amundi’s investment convictions in this month's podcast.

Our analysis on global recession risks, the inflation trend, expected central banks decisions, and the impact on asset allocation.

Discover the Global Investment View Article - September 2022: https://research-center.amundi.com/article/global-investment-views-september-2022

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Outerblue Talks Research - Reforming the EU budget rules – The challenges and alternatives

Mon, 22 Aug 2022 13:03:46 +0000

Under a new economic regime of high inflation and uncertain long-term growth prospects, the EU’s Stability and Growth Pact rules appear increasingly inadequate. Yet getting the EU budget rules right is essential if investors are to keep faith with the single currency. Tristan Perrier, economics insight specialist at the Amundi Institute, discusses the hows and whys around reforming the EU budget rules, some of the problems and fixes, and how a revised set of rules could be beneficial for investors given the likely implications on European growth and risk premia.

Discover the related article here

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Outerblue Convictions - Global Investment Views: Cautious on markets: high inflation, slowing growth

Fri, 05 Aug 2022 09:57:09 +0000

Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Institute, shares her views and talks about Amundi’s investment convictions in this month's podcast.

Inflation, war and continued COVID lock down in China, the past few month have been a perfect storm which has been weighing heavily on the market.

What are the latest development for Central Banks, the main areas of focus in Europe and the consequences for investment and asset allocation?

Discover the article: "Italy swimming in uncertain waters as PM Draghi resigns "

Global Investment Views - August 2022

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Outerblue Talks Research - Amundi H2 2022 Investment Outlook

Tue, 26 Jul 2022 13:57:38 +0000

Inflation in the west is increasing at its fastest rate for several decades, while in turn, the elevated levels are forcing central banks to hike interest rates. The result is a toxic mix for growth.

Following the publication of Amundi’s investment outlook for the second half of 2022, we’re joined in this podcast by Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Institute, to discuss what lies ahead for investors for the rest of the year, particularly in a time of rising rates and regional divergences in growth, inflation and policy mix.

Read the full article on Amundi Research Center : H2 2022 Investment Outlook - Life above zero: investors’ journey at a time of rising rates

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Outerblue Convictions - Global Investment Views: Market Views August 2022

Mon, 25 Jul 2022 15:52:08 +0000

Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Institute, shares her views and talks about Amundi’s investment convictions in this month's podcast.

Inflation, war and continued COVID lock down in China, the past few month have been a perfect storm which has been weighing heavily on the market.

What are the latest development for Central Banks, the main areas of focus in Europe and the consequences for investment and asset allocation?

Discover the article: "Italy swimming in uncertain waters as PM Draghi resigns "

Global Investment Views - August 2022

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Outerblue Talks Research - Global economic policies: Divergence or decoupling ? Olivier Blanchard & Pascal Blanqué

Fri, 15 Jul 2022 13:39:54 +0000

What room is left for budget, fiscal and monetary policy manoeuvre against a backdrop of inflation and war?

Former IMF Chief Economist, Olivier Blanchard, discussed the options with Amundi Institute Chairman Pascal Blanqué.

Discover more: https://forum.amundi.com/highlights-replay/

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Outerblue Convictions - Global Investment views: Play the desynchronization of the cycle

Mon, 04 Jul 2022 08:44:07 +0000

Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Institute, shares her views and talks about Amundi’s investment convictions in this month's podcast.

Inflationary pressures, persistent bottlenecks and tightening financial conditions : these factors have been fairly persistent since the start of 2022.

The context is highly volatile and central banks are continuing to take actions.

How might things evolve?

What impact all of this is having on corporate earnings?

How should investors re assesses their asset allocation?

Global Investment Views - July 2022

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Outerblue Convictions - Global Investment Views: Monetary policies and central banks

Wed, 08 Jun 2022 10:37:41 +0000

Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Institute, shares her views and talks about Amundi’s
investment convictions in this month's podcast.

Since the start of the year, we have been talking in great depth about inflationary
concerns along with the geopolitical tensions. Then, there have been Covid
lockdowns in China. In this context, the Fed and other central banks have completely
changed their monetary policies and forward guideless. However, not all the
central banks were reacting in the same way.

Global Investment Views - June 2022

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Outerblue Responsible Investment - Investing in the Circular Economy

Tue, 24 May 2022 09:00:08 +0000

Shifting from a linear to a circular model is key for our future. A Circular Economy entails a change in our economic model, allowing to produce sustainable consumer goods, while protecting nature – by giving it time to regenerate – and ensuring the well-being of individuals. What are its main principles, why has it become necessary and what change will it trigger in our economy ?

Read the full paper on Amundi's Research Center:

ESG Thema #4 - Investing in the Circular Economy: Closing the loop

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Outerblue Convictions - Global Investment views: Central banks and the inflation balancing act

Thu, 28 Apr 2022 13:31:37 +0000

Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Institute, shares her views and talks about Amundi’s
investment convictions in this month's podcast.

Inflation has been a major focus since the start of the year. Now other
factors, notably the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the threat of supply
disruptions in China, are impacting the overall economic outlook and effecting
market performance.

Global Investment Views - May 2022

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Outerblue Conversations - French Elections 2022

Wed, 27 Apr 2022 10:05:36 +0000

Discover our experts’ views, on the keys elements to understand the results of the
French presidential election and its market implications.

Our special guest Nicholas Dungan, CEO of CogitoPraxis, adjunct professor at SciencesPo and senior fellow at the Atlantic Council shares his analysis of the new political landscape while Amundi experts, Vincent Mortier, Group Chief Investment Officer, and Pierre Blanchet, Head of Investment Intelligence, address the macro-economic implications for France and Europe and provide an update on markets and asset allocation.

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Outerblue Responsible Investment - Balancing climate ambition, energy security and economic development in Asia

Fri, 08 Apr 2022 15:04:59 +0000

Asia’s fast growing populations require a delicate balance between economic development, climate ambitions and energy security.

Home to more than half of the world’s population, the region is also responsible for over half of global carbon emissions.

But the magnitude of the energy transformation here presents many questions.

If you want to read the full research paper click below:

ESG Thema #8 - Financing the energy transition in Asia

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Outerblue Convictions - Global Investment views: Ukraine/Russia conflict

Mon, 28 Mar 2022 13:12:24 +0000

As well as the terrible human cost, the war has brought increased volatility right across the board.

Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Institute, shares her views and provide Amundi’s investment convictions in this month's podcast.

Read the full paper on Amundi's Research Center:

Global Investment Views - April 2022

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Outerblue Convictions - Global Investment views: Special Ukraine

Fri, 04 Mar 2022 10:59:37 +0000

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has far reaching consequences

Monica Defend, Global Head of Research, shares her views and provide Amundi’s investment convictions in this month's podcast.

Read the full paper on Amundi's Research Center:

Global Investment Views - March 2022

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Outerblue Convictions - Global Investment views: Strong market gyrations

Wed, 02 Feb 2022 17:04:15 +0000

January has seen strong gyrations in markets, with nominal and real yields rising sharply, driving a strong shift from growth to value in equities.

Monica Defend, Global Head of Research, shares her views and provide Amundi’s investment convictions in this month's podcast.

Read the full paper on Amundi's Research Center:

Global Investment Views - February 2022

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Outerblue Talks Research - 2022 Investment Outlook: What's in store for investors in 2022?

Tue, 07 Dec 2021 14:45:03 +0000

As 2021 draws to a close, the global economy is continuing its recovery from the Covid pandemic, even though it is slowing down and inflation is looming large.

There's plenty of major challenges to be faced, not least the energy transition to fight climate change and the development of an inclusive growth model.

Read the full paper:

2022 Investment Outlook - Investing in the great transformation

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Outerblue Convictions - Global Investment views: Markets in quicksand: inflationary risks persist

Wed, 27 Oct 2021 16:38:11 +0000

For few months now, we've been seeing significantly pricing in energy and related commodities and supply bottlenecks have driven inflation dynamics into a vicious cycle.

Monica Defend, Global Head of Research, shares her views and provide Amundi’s investment convictions in this month's podcast.

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Outerblue Responsible Investment - Attaining Net zero: issues, implications and investment opportunities

Wed, 20 Oct 2021 13:19:51 +0000

While carbon emissions have been slowly increasing despite efforts to bring them down, “net zero” commitments, on the other hand, have skyrocketed. Setting climate objectives used to be the domain of public institutions, but no more.

This first episode of a series of podcasts produced by Amundi on topical ESG themes is going to explore the topic of Net Zero, based on two papers written and published by Amundi’s ESG experts.

If you want to read the full research papers click below:

ESG Thema #1 - Introduction to Net Zero

ESG Thema #3 - How can investors contribute to Net Zero efforts?

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Outerblue Conversations - Germany kicks off a major electoral sequence for Europe

Thu, 30 Sep 2021 13:54:19 +0000

With Angela Merkel’s long-standing reign coming to an end and the French presidential election in sight, Europe is facing a series of significant electoral events.

Fabian Zuleeg, head of the European Policy Centre think-tank, shared his insights and analysis on the German federal election results and on the various possible outcomes of the whole sequence, whilst Amundi experts addressed the investment implications.

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Outerblue Convictions - Global Investment views: Mounting risks, buying time.

Thu, 30 Sep 2021 09:22:53 +0000

This month’s main points of attention include the German Federal election, the Evergrande issue in China and its potential impact on global financial markets and an ongoing context of rising inflation.

Monica Defend, Global Head of Research, shares her views and provide Amundi’s
investment convictions for the coming months.

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Outerblue Convictions - Global Investment views: Markets in 3D: Delta, Deceleration and Divergences

Wed, 01 Sep 2021 15:46:17 +0000

Equities have remained buoyant over the past weeks despite some challenges (China regulation, Afghanistan crisis), primarily due to the exceptional earnings seasons in the US and Europe. Looking ahead, we identify three main themes: the spread of the Delta Covid variant, the deceleration of economic growth from its peak, and divergences in policies

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Outerblue Talks Research - H2 2021 Investment Outlook: Watch out for Inflation!

Mon, 05 Jul 2021 10:32:33 +0000

The Covid-19 crisis has transformed the world with far reaching consequences that markets are now starting to assess. The most important one being what will be left of the Great Recovery following the crisis.

Read the full paper:

https://research-center.amundi.com/article/h2-2021-investment-outlook-inflation-blows-markets-and-investors-need-act

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Outerblue Convictions - Global Investment views: Waters seem calm, yet are they safe?”

Wed, 23 Jun 2021 15:43:21 +0000

Waters appear calm, but there are strong undercurrents The waters seem to have remained calm in financial markets, despite still hot numbers from the real economy. Although we see a generally positive picture, main economies are at different stages in their journey towards the peak of acceleration. Europe and some EM have still room to go in this respect.

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Outerblue Convictions - Global Investment Views: Inflation is taking the driver’s seat of financial markets

Thu, 27 May 2021 13:25:06 +0000

Inflation has remained dormant for a long time, with years of below-target and weak inflation, but we are now reaching a delicate juncture where inflation is taking the driver’s seat in financial markets. Whether this is just temporary or will prove persistent is the crucial question and at present there are two conflicting inflation narratives.

DISCLAIMER: This podcast is only for the attention of “Professional” investors as defined in Directive 2004/39/EC dated 21 April 2004 on markets in financial instruments (“MIFID”), investment services providers and any other professional of the financial industry. Views are subject to change and should not be relied upon as investment advice on behalf of Amundi.

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Outerblue Conversations - Biden's Climate Summit

Mon, 10 May 2021 13:07:12 +0000

A few months from the COP26 in Glasgow, the President of the United-States sends a strong signal as he convenes global public decision makers to address climate change. Sagarika Chatterjee, Director of Climate Change at PRI and COP26 High Level Champions Team Finance Lead provided her analysis on the meaning and implications of this significant event in a conversation with Jean-Jacques Barbéris - AMUNDI, Executive Committee Member, Head of Institutional clients and corporate coverage, Supervision of ESG Business Line.

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Outerblue Convictions - Global Investment Views: Recovery : a key market driver

Tue, 27 Apr 2021 12:22:34 +0000

April started on a positive note for financial markets, after an exceptional first quarter, with divergent fortunes for equities and global bonds. Going forward, the progression of the recovery will likely be the key market driver, leading to greater divergences.

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Outerblue Convictions - Global Investment Views: Growth narratives, investment consequences & risks on environment

Thu, 08 Apr 2021 08:31:02 +0000

A big shake-up is under way in bonds – rising UST yields, a steepening yield curve and inflation expectations are leading markets to question whether we are facing a taper tantrum 2.0.

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Outerblue Convictions - Global Investment Views: How hot is the inflation pot?

Wed, 03 Mar 2021 10:53:47 +0000

If the start of 2021 led markets to question the no inflation forever mantra, the debate has been hotting up in February, with the US 10Y inflation breakeven reaching its highest level since 2014, pricing in higher inflation expectations.

Read the full paper: https://research-center.amundi.com/page/Article/Amundi-Views/2021/03/Global-Investment-Views-March-2021

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Outerblue Conversations - Europe political hotspots and investment implications

Wed, 03 Feb 2021 09:51:38 +0000

The Italian political uncertainty, the post Merkel set-up, the Next Generation EU…are shaping a new European environment.

Enrico Letta, former prime minister of Italy (2014-2015) shared his insights and analysis on the consequences of these changes.

Amundi experts, Gilles Dauphiné head of Euro Fixed Income and Sergio Bertoncini Senior Fixed Income Strategist, provided the investment implications.They were interviewed by Jean-Jacques Barberis, head of Institutional Clients and Corporate Coverage supervision of ESG business line.

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Outerblue Convictions - Global Investment Views: What changes with the new US administration?

Wed, 03 Feb 2021 07:58:26 +0000

Markets closed 2020 on strong footing and the recent Democratic sweep in the US makes a greater fiscal push more likely, leading us to lift our 2021 GDP growth forecast for the US to 5.2-5.7%, 1% above previous estimates. This marks a great divergence between the US and the rest of Developed markets, where we have been lowering our forecasts.

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Outerblue Convictions - Global Investment Views: will the old normal return?

Mon, 04 Jan 2021 14:04:27 +0000

2020 has been an unprecedented year in modern history, with the Covid-19 pandemic leading to the deepest global recession post World War II that has affected the most countries simultaneously since the 1870s (World Bank). This big shock is not going to reverse completely, and the old normal will not return as it used to be. Hopes for a fast vaccine distribution, a further fiscal push, and for decreasing geopolitical tensions are all driving the reflation narrative.

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Outerblue Conversations - The “Day After” series – Geopolitics: what’s next for Europe?

Thu, 17 Dec 2020 13:08:40 +0000

In light of the current pandemic, Europe is progressively strengthening its geopolitical role on certain topics like climate change. But the EU has also to deal with big challenges: Brexit, coming soon, new relationships with the USA and China, digital transformation, immigration policy, and above all a huge social crisis. These issues are discussed today by Jean-Jacques Barbéris, Head of the Institutional & Corporate clients coverage and of the ESG business line, member of the Executive Committee, Enrico Letta former Prime Minister of Italy and Thomas Philippon, Professor of Finance at New York University, Stern School of Business and Administrator of the think -tank Europa Nova.

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Outerblue Talks Research - The "Day After" series - Changing shares of labour and capital incomes: what implications for investors?

Fri, 27 Nov 2020 16:37:09 +0000

The distribution of share of national income to labour versus capital has fallen to historically low levels in several advanced economies, such as the United States and the United Kingdom. Amundi believes that the Covid-19 crisis – together with other factors – will trigger a rebalancing in favour of labour over the next two decades.

Listen to Jean-Jacques Barbéris -- Head of the Institutional and Corporate Clients Division, in charge of the ESG business line and member of the executive committee ; Pierre Blanchet – Head of Investment Intelligence – and Théophile Pouget-Abadie from the Business solutions and Innovation team, to learn more about it.

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Outerblue Talks Research - 2021 investment outlook: market rotation in an uneven recovery

Tue, 24 Nov 2020 16:17:14 +0000

Marked by the most severe recession in modern history, 2020 was an unprecedented year. With the global pandemic continuing, we enter 2021 with a mildly positive outlook for the upcoming recovery, but with the assumption that the path to pre-crisis growth levels will be long and uncertain. Against this backdrop, investors should be ready to play rotations in their portfolios, favouring cyclical themes but also keeping a strong focus on quality. Monica Defend, Global Head of Research, gives her key takeaways of the year 2020 and assesses Amundi’s market scenario and asset allocation for 2021.

Read the full paper: https://research-center.amundi.com/article/2021-investment-outlook-market-rotations-uneven-recovery

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Outerblue Conversations - The US elections #3: Results - analysis & investment impacts

Tue, 17 Nov 2020 10:49:15 +0000

As the election of Joe Biden unfolds in legal challenges, Greg Valliere, Barron’s columnist, veteran non-partisan commentator on Washington developments, has provided his insights and analysis on the current outcome.

Ken Taubes US CIO, head of the Amundi investment platform, Pascal Blanque Amundi global CIO, Jean-Jacques Barberis head of Institutional Clients and Corporate Coverage supervision of ESG business line, have addressed markets and investment impacts.

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Outerblue Conversations - The US elections #2: expectations and market scenarios on the eve of the US presidential elections

Thu, 29 Oct 2020 14:39:39 +0000

Few days left before the most divisive US presidential elections. If the polls in the US are accurate, Joe Biden will be elected the next president of the US. But as experienced in the last election, the polls could be wrong, and maybe Trump will win again. As the election grows closer, Covid-19 cases are rising in many parts of the world and is reemerging as a threat to the global economy. Investors are searching for answers on what the election will mean for the markets going forward.

Gillian Tett, Chair of the Editorial Board and Editor-At-Large for the Financial Times in the United States provides her analysis on the forces at play and the possible outcomes and consequences. Ken Taubes, US CIO and Head of the Amundi US Investment Platform addresses the investment impacts.

This second US elections dedicated episode is hosted by Jean-Jacques Barberis: Executive Committee Member, Head of Institutional clients and corporate coverage, Supervision of ESG Business Line.

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Outerblue Convictions - November global investment views: the path towards a sustained growth

Thu, 29 Oct 2020 08:51:13 +0000

Developments on the virus and vaccine front and the US election are hot topics. Markets are pricing in a glass-half-full scenario, despite the still-alarming infection numbers on the virus front (second wave in Europe and record new cases globally). The interconnection of the three cycles — virus, real economy and financial — continues, but the virus transmission mechanism is changing.

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Outerblue Convictions - The US elections #1: implications for global financial markets

Fri, 09 Oct 2020 10:49:40 +0000

The US Presidential election takes place in 25 days and holds enormous implications for global financial markets. Last Friday, Trump announced that he has contracted the coronavirus, and his handling of his own illness has become a major development in the dynamics of the race. In addition, last week the two candidates held their first presidential debate, which was another important event in the course of the campaign. Learm more about the possible scenarios and market impacts with Lisa Jones, CEO of Amundi’s business in the Americas, Ken Taubes,US CIO and Head of the US Investment Platform and Didier Borowski, Head of Global Views in this first episode dedicated to the US elections.

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Outerblue Convictions - Global Investment Views: markets at a crossroad, opportunities in divergence

Fri, 02 Oct 2020 15:55:31 +0000

Markets are pricing a lasting deflationary and low discount rate environment, and the ability of monetary and fiscal policies to continue to feed the “financial multiplier,” hence keeping a positive momentum of policy support. This support generates a certain dispersion of returns that offers opportunities for relative value play. This is the game investors should play as long as the policy mix keeps markets in a relative calm.

Listen to Monica Defend, Global Head of Research, to discover the asset allocation views of October, in this new episode of Blue Convictions.

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Outerblue Responsible Investment - Carbon price and credit default: introducing the carbon price margin

Thu, 01 Oct 2020 14:11:48 +0000

The unprecedented transition associated to achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement generates a transition risk for the financial system. Identifying the exposure of investment portfolios to such risks faces various challenges.Théo Le Guenedal, one of Amundi's quantitative researcher explains for Outerblue the results of his study "Credit Risk Sensitivity to Carbon Price", a paper which wins GRASFI 2020 Best Paper Prize for Research on Climate Finance (sponsored by Imperial College London).

To read the full paper:

"Credit Sensitivity to Carbon Price": https://research-center.amundi.com/article/credit-risk-sensitivity-carbon-price

To go further about Amundi's quantitative research on carbon price:

"Measuring and Managing Carbon Risk in Investment Portfolios": https://research-center.amundi.com/article/measuring-and-managing-carbon-risk-investment-portfolios

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Outerblue Convictions - Global Investment Views : A note of caution for the back-to-school season

Fri, 04 Sep 2020 08:35:29 +0000

The summer season has seen both the confirmation of existing themes and the emergence of new ones wich will likely drive economic and market trends in the coming months.

On one hand, the decoupling between the real economy and financial markets has proved persistent but on the other hand as the holiday season going on the way the rising level of Covid-19 infections across Europe and in part of the US confirm that the pandemic is still not yet over.

Monica Defend, Global Head of Research discusses the overall economic recovery and shares Amundi main areas of convictions.

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Outerblue Talks Research - The “Day After” series - rethinking the macro and cross-asset research post crisis

Mon, 20 Jul 2020 09:35:42 +0000

Crises create disruption and Covid-19 is no exception, bringing new complexities, new opportunities and new risks to the investment landscape. Covid-19 accelerated markets’ entropy and risk takers will evolve their investment approaches. From our research angle, the pandemic triggered a new macro financial ecosystem. Discover our GREAT framework to monitor investment in this new ecosystem in this new episode of Blue Research podcast featured by Monica Defend, Global Head of Research.

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Outerblue Talks Research - The "Day After" series - Deglobalisation: an assessment of financial contagion

Mon, 13 Jul 2020 09:49:40 +0000

Trade dynamics have definitely shown an accentuated inversion of the globalisation trend, since 10 years. The Great Financial Crisis is a turning point in the degree of global economic integration, with protectionist policies being adopted in many countries and a decelerating growth in trade-intensive sectors. What are the financial globalisation and financial contagion phenomena? Which consequences of the deglobalisation trend may be foreseen for investors? Learn more with Marie Brière, Head of the Investor Research Center at Amundi and Alessia Berardi, Head of EM Macro and Strategy Research.

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Outerblue Conversations - EU Equities: a tactical call

Fri, 10 Jul 2020 16:39:40 +0000

June has been a month of consolidation for equities values in a context of positive economic data, showing a “faster than expected recovery” in all major economies. This impulse, led by the massive and coordinated central banks’ action, translated into a very strong rebound of equities indexes, especially in Europe. Listen to Amundi’s experts who share their convictions: Kasper Elmgreen, Head of Equities, Estelle Ménard, Deputy Head of Global Thematic Equities at CPR AM and Sylvain Brouillard, Deputy Global Head of Index, ETF and Smart Beta Management interviewed by Thierry Ancona, Deputy Head of the Institutional and Corporate Clients Division.

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Outerblue Talks Research - The “Day After” series – The EU resilience: the Covid-19 crisis as a catalyst for change

Fri, 10 Jul 2020 08:16:47 +0000

The EU is suffering from a risk of fragmentation along several lines. The Union acted to overcome these risks, setting up powerful tools: the asset purchase program, the emergency package and the Next Generation fund. In the last 30 years, the EU encountered many crisis. The current crisis has an unprecedented size and magnitude, with all countries affected: therefore, it is a catalyst for change of the EU. A new European landscape is drawing. Tom Burges-Watson interviewed Pierre Blanchet, Head of Investment Intelligence and Didier Borowski, Head of Global Views, to discuss the topic.

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Outerblue Talks Research - H2 2020 investment outlook: investing during a de-freezing cycle

Mon, 29 Jun 2020 15:57:18 +0000

The Covid-19 crisis drove the global economy into an unprecedented deep freeze in the first half of 2020. The combination of monetary and fiscal stimulus will help the global economy de-freeze in H2. As was the case with the virus cycle, the recovery will be sequential and involve different regions at different times - on a ‘first in, first out’ basis - and will depend on the size of the policy response. As the global economy gradually de-freezes, investors will turn their focus back to geopolitics.

What are the main economical and investment themes to focus on for the second half of 2020? What are the key drivers investors should monitor? Jean-Jacques Barberis, Head of Institutional and Corporate Clients Coverage interviewed Vincent Mortier, Deputy CIO and Monica Defend, Global Head of Research, to answer to these questions.

Read the full H2 semester investment outlook of Amundi: https://research-center.amundi.com/article/h2-2020-investment-outlook-investing-during-de-freezing-cycle

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Outerblue Talks Research - The “Day After” series – Climate change post Covid-19: a crisis at a crossroad

Mon, 29 Jun 2020 14:45:00 +0000

2020 was supposed to be the year when policy makers, corporates, and investors charged ahead in the fight against climate change. Instead, it is the year of the coronavirus pandemic. The COP26 has been postponed, climate strikes are cancelled, and the European Commission’s ability to push through the Green Deal has yet to be proven. However, while the global lockdowns are sure to make a dent in global emissions for 2020, it remains to be seen whether climate change will fight its way into the recovery or become sacrificed yet again. Alice de Bazin, Head of Institutional Offering and Solutions department, Théophile Pouget-Abadie and Tobias Hessenberger, both working in Business solutions and innovation team, discuss the topic with Tom Burges-Watson.

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Outerblue Convictions - An active play for July combined with a focus on fundamentals

Fri, 26 Jun 2020 16:08:01 +0000

Remaining active, selecting the assets and preserving liquidity are the key points of this new Blue Convictions episode on Amundi’s global investment views. Central Banks are still game changers, but the risk of default for fixed income and the need of earnings growth check for equities have to be considered in the medium term. On the currency market, what about the recent appetite for the euro versus the dollar? Listen to Monica Defend, Global Head of Research, who explains our views and convictions: a bumpy road to a “day after” renaissance.

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Outerblue Talks Research - The “Day After” series – A possible inflationary cocktail

Mon, 22 Jun 2020 07:21:59 +0000

In the short term, the coronavirus pandemic is clearly likely to mean volatility in inflation figures, given factors pulling in opposite directions. In the longer term, and after four decades of low inflation across most economies, a new high-inflation regime may happen.

In light of this, investors will need to reassess their strategic asset allocation to include investments that could help mitigate inflation risk (i.e. real assets, commodities, gold, infrastructure, inflation-linked bonds), but also be ready to tactically readjust their investment decisions based on the inflation outlook.

Listen to Bastien Drut, Senior Strategist at CPR-AM and Tristan Perrier, Global Views Analyst for a deep dive into inflation analysis in our current economical context.

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Outerblue Conversations - Eurogroup and ECB rescue packages: measures and analysis of the fixed income market

Mon, 15 Jun 2020 09:01:07 +0000

A lot is coming from the fiscal side in Europe to fight the economic consequences of the crisis: French supplementary budget just released, Germany abandoning the black zero policy, and the debate on recovery plan taking center stage, with some adjustments in countries’ positions. How to assess these recent evolutions? What to expect from central banks now? Which consequences to foresee in the fixed income market? Pierre Blanchet, Head of Investment Intelligence and Eric Brard, CIO - Fixed Income, answer these questions in this new episode of Blue Convictions, broadcasted by Jean-Jacques Barberis, Head of Institutional and Corporate Clients Coverage.

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Outerblue Talks Research - The "Day After" series - New frontiers for Central Banks

Fri, 12 Jun 2020 08:34:34 +0000

Central Banks (CBs) are by nature more flexible than governments. Thus, they have been the most proactive in this crisis, reintroducing large-scale asset-purchase programmes financed by money creation (QE policies). With this pandemic, a spectacular change in economic policy has taken place in just a few months: fiscal and monetary policies have become intertwined, and this is probably not reversible. While governments have become the buyers of last resort, CBs are playing their role as lenders of last resort. How far can they go?

Listen to the answer in this new Blue Research episode broadcasted by Didier Borowski, Head of Global Views.

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Outerblue Talks Research - The "Day After" series - Social inequalities, a rising theme on investors' shelf

Fri, 05 Jun 2020 07:03:17 +0000

Social inequality has become a major issue for investors. Over the 2016-2019 period, the ‘S’ criteria in company selection (via a ‘best in class’ ESG approach) had a real impact on the prices of listed companies, particularly in Europe (Roncalli et al, 2019). A priori, the more a country was mired in inequality before a crisis and especially this one, the more the response could be massive at the end: investors should therefore fully consider this factor in their assessment of the relative economic situation of different countries.

Listen to Jean-Jacques Barberis, Head of Institutional and Corporate Clients Coverage (Amundi), Bastien Drut, Senior Strategist (CPR AM) and Théophile Pouget-Abadie, Business Solutions and Innovation officer (Amundi) in this new session of Blue Research podcast dedicated to "inequalities".

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Outerblue Talks Research - The "Day After" series - Is green the new gold of the crisis?

Wed, 03 Jun 2020 11:58:13 +0000

Amundi’s teams have been studying the evolution of ESG investing across asset classes and geographies for the past several years. Since the beginning of the coronavirus crisis and the subsequent global lockdown, a lot of market turmoil put corporates’ sustainability under tremendous scrutiny. In this context, discussions happen around a possible reinforcement of the materiality of ESG criteria on corporate resilience. This would have a huge impact on potential relative investor preferences. To assess this impact, Tom Burges-Watson interviewed Marie Brière, Head of the Investor Research Centre and Takaya Sekine, Deputy Head of Quantitative Research.

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Outerblue Convictions - The big financial regimes picture is confirmed

Wed, 27 May 2020 16:00:00 +0000

Monica Defend, Global Head of Research, gives the global investment views of the month and the asset allocation convictions of Amundi.

Led by Tom Burges-Watson, this new episode of Blue Convictions confirm the big picture to come: a contraction phase in 2020, a recovery phase in 2021 and a late cycle or asset reflation, depending on central banks policies, in 2022. Healthcare policies, monetary and fiscal policies plus solvency/default issues are key elements to monitor. What is our analysis of the labour market? Which geopolitical situation must be kept in mind? Should we rally on the equity market?

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Outerblue Conversations - Covid-19: what are the next steps in Europe?

Wed, 27 May 2020 07:36:45 +0000

Talks will begin today, May 27, on the European Union’s (EU) seven-year budget and plans to fund the economic recovery following the coronavirus pandemic. France and Germany proposed a €500 billion European Union Recovery Fund, to be financed by debt issuance by the European Commission on behalf of the Union. Do the current multi-annual EU budget be achieved? What are the pros and cons to bear in mind looking at the EU final budget agreement? Which place could we expect for Europe in the geopolitical sphere post crisis?

Enrico Letta, former Italian Prime Minister (from 2013 to 2014), is the keynote guest of this new episode of the Blue Conversation series, interviewed by Monica Defend, Global Head of Research.

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Outerblue Talks Research - "The Day After" series – Learn the rules like a pro, so you can break them like an artist

Mon, 18 May 2020 16:30:08 +0000

The coronavirus is challenging the rules that underpin the way our economies and societies function and interact with each other. One could even advocate that the coronavirus has shattered our dominant corpus more massively than in 2008 in less than a month. Budgetary rules, public intervention, slowbalisation, deglobalisation, central banks role: these key words are discussed by Jean-Jacques Barberis, Head of Institutional and Corporate Clients Coverage (Amundi) and Bastien Drut, Senior Strategist (CPR AM) during this Blue Research episode. Together they acknowledge that former economical rules have changed and try to assess which new ones may prevail after the crisis.

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Outerblue Talks Research - "The Day After" series - Covid-19: the invisible hand pointing investors down the road to the 70s

Mon, 11 May 2020 18:52:21 +0000

Outerblue introduces a new series of podcasts entitled “The Day After” where our experts share their thinking on what the long-term implications of the current, unprecedented crisis on the investment landscape could be.

In this first episode, Pascal Blanqué, Amundi's Global CIO, highlights the key reasons why the current crisis could be the trigger for a regime shift that could, in the long run, lead to a new equilibrium with features similar to those seen in the ‘70s. In the journey along this road, investors will need to stay active and rethink their investment approaches around some key principles and especially: diminished returns, a reorganisation of the risk/cost budget couple with a decent target return and a new position of portfolio with a different hierarchy of risk premia and asset classes.

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Outerblue Convictions - The financial regime cycle is altered: contraction and recovery time

Thu, 30 Apr 2020 16:03:53 +0000

The pandemic outbreak altered the financial regime cycle in place at the end of 2019.

Amundi now expects a contraction (central banks and governments support, recession, rising unemployment) followed by a recovery later in 2021 (economic activity retracing back but below 2019 levels, rising labour costs, cooling down monetary and governments actions), which would eventually land in a late cycle in 2022 (or potentially an asset reflation regime, should Central Banks remain ultra-supportive).

Listen to the key elements to watch in May in this new market analysis and asset allocation views done by Monica Defend, Global Head of Research.

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Outerblue Convictions - SPECIAL COVID-19 ep#7 - EU summit and equities: stories of a recovery fund, dividends and ESG investing

Fri, 24 Apr 2020 14:48:01 +0000

The ECB displayed no limits in its policies and is keen to change its operational rules. The recovery fund framework still needs to be confirmed, especially on the mutualisation degree. Some countries request loans, others grants. Does this fund will be enough to restore some confidence among investors in the Eurozone? Which decisions from the credit ratings agencies can be expected? Monica Defend, Global Head of Research, explains the decisions taken on the EU summit of 23 April and its potential consequences in Covid-19 crisis management. Alongside this macroeconomic analysis, Kasper Elmgreen, Head of Equities, gives his comment on the equities market. Is the market too optimistic on equities? How about earnings recovery and dividends cuts? Jean-Jacques Barberis, Head of Institutional and Corporate Clients Coverage, leads the interview for this new special episode of Blue Convictions.

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Outerblue Convictions - SPECIAL COVID-19 ep#6 - Emerging markets: a lower pressure on outflows

Wed, 15 Apr 2020 17:14:00 +0000

In terms of market pressure, the worst seems behind us concerning the emerging markets. Markets are appreciating the stimulus put in place around the world by central banks, the IMF and the World Bank. Deglobalisation process is in place with relocalisation of production at the same time. Which countries will be the most affected by the Covid-19 pandemic? What can be assessed in terms of EM debt? Are there some areas of opportunities? Alessia Berardi, Head of Emerging Markets Macro and Strategy Research is interviewed alongside Yerlan Syzdykov, Global Head of Emerging Markets by Jean-Jacques Barberis, Head of Institutional and Corporate Clients Coverage, in this new episode of Blue Convictions.

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Outerblue Conversations - SPECIAL COVID-19 ep#5 - The USA: opportunities in a market expecting a deep recession

Tue, 07 Apr 2020 15:21:39 +0000

The pandemic hit the USA, now the new epicentre of the storm. Fiscal and monetary stimulus came fast and in huge volumes to support the economy. The recession is already priced by the US market but opportunities can be cought for long-term investors. Dominique Carrel-Billiard, Head of Institutional and Corporate clients division, takes the micro to interview Monica Defend, Global Head of Research and Ken Taubes, CIO of US investment management, for this new episode focusing on the USA. What are the macroeconomic analysis key take aways? Which themes to play in both equities and fixed income markets? Our experts give you the answers.

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Outerblue Convictions - SPECIAL COVID-19 ep#4 - Some light in the fixed income space

Wed, 01 Apr 2020 06:16:30 +0000

Volatility will remain for a while in the equity and fixed income worlds. However, thanks to the action and coordination of central banks, massive debt issuance in Europe and in the US eased trading for both buying and selling sides. The Covid-19 crisis led to sector and rating fragmentations and liquidity management is the top priority concern. This new episode of Blue Convictions special Covid-19 series highlights the key elements to monitor in the fixed income field, especially in Europe, with Eric Brard, Head of Alpha Fixed Income, as a guest speaker. Do potential opportunities exist in the € credit market? What are the latest news about Coronabonds and TLTRO channels? Alongside M. Brard, Monica Defend, Global Head of Research gives her answers. As usual, both experts are interviewed by Jean-Jacques Barberis, Head of Institutional and Corporate clients coverage.

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Outerblue Convictions - SPECIAL COVID-19 ep#3 - A game of cycles

Wed, 25 Mar 2020 15:45:58 +0000

The world is now entirely racing for time against the Covid-19.Three cycles are under watch: the pandemic cycle, the financial cycle and the real economy cycle. This period constitutes a shift for investors where the virus exhorts returns back to their long and sustainable trends. The Fed adressed liquidity issues while the ECB will probably deepen its QE measures. Governments keep up with fiscal announcements. Quality, low volatility, duration and liquidity buffles are keys in portfolios.Will coronabonds emerge in the financial space? This third episode of Blue Convictions special series about Covid-19 gathers together Jean-Jacques Barberis, Head of Institutional and Corporate clients coverage, Monica Defend, Global Head of Research, and Pascal Blanqué, Global Chief Investment Officer to provide Amundi's last economic analysis and market views.

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Outerblue Convictions - SPECIAL COVID-19 ep#2 - Evolution and market impacts

Tue, 17 Mar 2020 14:46:01 +0000

Jean-Jacques Barberis, Head of Institutional and Corporate clients coverage, speaks with Monica Defend, Global Head of Research, about the governments and central banks last decisions and measures to fight Covid-19 pandemy. What has to be monitored before the end of the week? What's happening in the markets right now? Listen to this second rdv of the Blue Convictions special Covid-19 series to find the answers.

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Outerblue Convictions - SPECIAL COVID-19: ECB true action beyond communication

Fri, 13 Mar 2020 18:42:08 +0000

Coordination of public authorities becomes essential in the economic and health crisis management. What are the measures already taken by governments? What action the ECB is ready to put in place? Why the market reacted negatively yesterday? Monica Defend, Global Head of Research, gives her macroeconomic views and analysis, especially on Christine Lagarde last speech.

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Outerblue Responsible Investment - ESG investing & equity asset pricing

Fri, 13 Mar 2020 09:30:00 +0000

This first episode of Blue Research explains the key findings of the paper "ESG investing & equity asset pricing", freshly updated in 2020. Thierry Roncalli, Head of Quantitative Research, observes:

a transatlantic divide between Europe and the USA
a winning pillar: the social one, in terms of performance and returns
a movement from static to dynamic of ESG investing, which becomes more and more complex

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Outerblue Convictions - SPECIAL EPISODE - Coronavirus impact on markets: Volcker's theory as a victim of COVID-19

Tue, 10 Mar 2020 17:28:00 +0000

The shock in the markets is temporary and the main issue is on the credit side. Central banks mission includes stepping in when the markets conditions are tightening. There is room for manoeuvre, time is approaching to look at the situation with the lenses of opportunities. Gold and treasury remain safe heavens. The longevity of the virus and the recovery of the economic activity are the two key criterias to assess. Pascal Blanqué, Group CIO and Monica Defend, Global Head of Research discuss Amundi’s views on the current market situation.

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Outerblue Conversations - Super Tuesday: Biden running against Trump?

Tue, 10 Mar 2020 13:16:52 +0000

The Super Tuesday happened to be in favour of the democratic candidate Joe Biden. Are we assisting to a split inside the Democratic Party between Biden and Sanders? What would be his program in 5 points? What is the USA reaction to coronavirus pandemy? Find the answers with Greg Valliere, Barron’s columnist, veteran non-partisan commentator on Washington developments and Ken Taubes, CIO of US Investment Management in this second episode of Blue Conversation.

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Outerblue Convictions - A temporary shock, with daily data monitoring to know when the economic activity will resume to normal

Thu, 05 Mar 2020 11:14:14 +0000

In this second episode of Blue Convictions, the impacts of coronavirus are discussed and analysed. The current shock is temporary and will lead to a rebound. Amundi monitors all signals daily to have a clear view on the path happening now, and understand when and how the economy will resume to normal activity.

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Outerblue Talks Research - Central banks, Trade war, Coronavirus: what are the markets drivers for the beginning of 2020?

Tue, 11 Feb 2020 15:37:06 +0000

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As the Brexit bill eventually passed UK legislation, Sir. Simon Fraser, Former Permanent Secretary at the Foreign & Commonwealth Office, shared his insights on the next steps following this major milestone with Amundi’s experts.

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Outerblue Conversations - Day one after Brexit: what are the impacts on the UK, the EU and financial markets?

Tue, 11 Feb 2020 15:29:43 +0000

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The January episode of Blue Convictions discusses Central Banks communication, the latest economic and growth data and current volatility spikes. Monica Defend, Head of Global Research, emphasizes the need to be agile in the current market momentum.

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